SF Giants have a narrow but realistic path to sneak into the playoffs

It has been a roller coaster to get here, but somehow after so many struggles and travails, the SF Giants have a small, but realistic path, to reach the MLB postseason. It would be an incredible story if they could pull it off.

Yes, you read that right. While San Francisco's struggles throughout the summer months set them back, a hot stretch of baseball in the past two weeks has brought them back within four games of the New York Mets for the final Wild Card spot in the National League.

There is still a path for the Giants to catch New York, and while it's still not likely, it at least feels realistic.

SF Giants still have a chance for postseason after hot stretch

The Giants have 22 games remaining. Of those 22 games, 15 are against teams below .500. That includes six games against the St. Louis Cardinals (70-71), six against the Arizona Diamondbacks (70-71), and three against the ColoradoRockies (39-101). The only winning team they play is the Los Angeles Dodgers (78-61), whom they have seven games against. Combined, the Giants' schedule the rest of the way has a winning percentage of .485.

The New York Mets, meanwhile, have a more difficult schedule going forward. Their next 13 games are against teams that are .500 or better, including three games against the Cincinnati Reds (70-70), four against the Philadelphia Phillies (80-59), three against the Texas Rangers (72-69), and three against the Padres (76-64). They also still have to play the Cubs (80-60), sandwiched between divisional series against the Washington Nationals (56-83) and Miami Marlins (65-75). Their opponents down the stretch have a combined winning percentage of .508.

The winning percentages might not look that different, but let's look at it another way. The Giants play teams below .500 in 15 of their last 22 games. The Mets play teams .500 or better in 16 of their last 22 games.

There's also the element of momentum. Over the past month, the Giants are 14-12, while the Mets are 12-14. Over the past two weeks, the Giants are 10-3 (leading all of baseball) while the Mets are 8-6.

San Francisco has been playing better baseball for a while now and has an easier schedule down the stretch. While the Mets play a schedule littered with contenders, the Giants have the opportunity to stack wins against inferior opponents.

If Rafael Devers and Willy Adames stay hot and the rest of the Giants' offense does not completely fall apart, there's a real possibility San Francisco could go 15-7 in their final 22 games. That would give them a final record of 86-76.

The Mets, on the other hand, have been playing sub-.500 baseball since the All-Star break (they are 20-23 post break). If they keep that up, they'd likely go 10-12 in their last 22 games. That would put them at 85-77 as.

It leaves very little room for error on San Francisco's part, and it requires the Mets to play sub-.500 ball the rest of the way. If New York goes 12-12 down the stretch, the Giants would need to go 17-5, which feels too far out of reach.

Still, it's possible. FanGraphs gives the Giants a 4.3 percent chance to reach the playoffs. It might not feel like much, but it's a significant improvement from the 0.8 percent chance they had just ten days ago.

And this has happened before, as recently as last year. The Detroit Tigers had a 5.9 percent chance to reach the postseason on September 4th, 2025, according to FanGraphs. They got hot in September, and not only did they make the dance, but they also won a playoff series. Maybe the Giants can emulate that path.

It would still be a miracle, but the Giants have a much more realistic chance at the playoffs than they did just two weeks ago.

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