The SF Giants currently have a 59-63 record. They are good enough to be on the fringes of playoff contention, and certainly not bad enough to be tanking. They are stuck in the middle for the fourth straight year.
The SF Giants look like they will finish in the middle for the fourth straight year.
Sure, it is difficult to talk about the playoffs with how the Giants are playing. They do not look like a playoff-caliber team, and have not for some time.
That said, the Giants are still five games behind the New York Mets for the third Wild Card spot. The Cincinnati Reds, St. Louis Cardinals, and Arizona Diamondbacks sit between them and the Mets as well.
It is not impossible that they reach the playoffs. It is just highly unlikely. As of Saturday morning, the Giants' playoff odds sit at 2.7 percent according to Fangraphs. That number feels about right. That is to say, there is a high probability that they do not reach the playoffs.
In baseball, being stuck in the middle is a pretty tough position to be in, and it might arguably be the worst position. This year began with so much promise. The front office added fuel to that by acquiring Rafael Devers.
In the end, it is more of the same with a different cast of characters. The front office invested heavily in this roster. According to Cot's, the Giants' Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) payroll sits at $217.7 million, which is comfortably below the CBT threshold of $241 million.
That is a lot of money, and it is easy to say that this roster is underperforming. That could lead to some changes in leadership positions.
Unfortunately, this is a familiar position for the Giants. The roster is too good to tank, and not good enough to be in the playoff mix. Plus, they now have a lot of long-term contracts on the books. This includes Matt Chapman, Willy Adames, Jung Hoo Lee, and Rafael Devers.
That means there is less flexibility than there has been in recent seasons. The Giants did not truly benefit from that flexibility, so perhaps having these long-term commitments is better from an identity standpoint. It will not be an easy roster fix either. You cannot throw money at every roster issue. Sooner or later, the team needs the farm system to produce.
There has been some success in the past couple of years. Heliot Ramos, Patrick Bailey, Landen Roupp, and Casey Schmitt have made promising impressions. In the case of Ramos and Bailey, there are questions about whether the former can field and the latter can hit.
This team is reminiscent of the late 2010's Giants rosters in that it was an expensive roster that struggled to win games. Of course, those Giants rosters consisted of players who were closer to the end of their careers. This team has plenty of cornerstone players in the prime of their careers, so it would not be surprising to see a quick turnaround. If the team does bounce back next year, it will likely need the current core of players to lead the way.
Unfortunately, there is not a lot of excitement that comes from a team that is stuck in the middle. The struggles that have led them to this point will likely continue for the remainder of the year, as this roster is what it is. They likely cannot tank and should rebound from an awful stretch.
They cannot commit to a youth movement because many of the younger players on the 40-man roster have not proven to be ready for the majors. Committing to that would be a sign of tanking. Again, that feels unlikely. They are stuck in the middle and do not have a clear plan for how to get out of it.
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