Predicting which players the SF Giants will cut from their 40-man roster

The San Francisco Giants will have their work cut out for them this offseason. The team's significant underperformance in 2026 means standing pat over the winter is not an option, and president of baseball operations Buster Posey has already acknowledged his determination to avoid last year's mistake of not addressing their need for bullpen arms.

Before Posey can acquire anyone, though, he needs to make room on the roster – and that will not be easy. The Giants currently have 16 players on the 60-day IL, meaning there are 56 guys on their "40-man" roster, and they will need to reduce that number back to 40 once the offseason begins.

As Jon Becker wrote for Fangraphs last week, this is a virtually unprecedented task: San Francisco is the first team since 2021 (as far back as the site's roster data goes) to have a cohort this big on the 60-day at any point in a season, and no team in that time frame has ended a year with such a large group (as the Giants will). Furthermore, they have just one impending free agent, reliever JT Brubaker, leaving 55 players eligible to remain under team control next year.

So, with roster-crunch time fast approaching, I'm going to take a stab at predicting how Posey will proceed. Without further ado, here are my best guesses for who will still be standing on San Francisco's 40-man next month.

Group 1: the locks

Becker identified 24 players who are all but guaranteed to stick around next year, and we can increase that number to 25 after Monday's promotion of Bo Davidson. This group includes most of the team's ostensible regulars, as well as recent deadline acquisitions Miguel Mendez and Marcelo Mayer and seven pitchers at various stages of rehabbing arm injuries: Hayden Birdsong, Adrian Houser, Trevor McDonald, Randy Rodriguez, Blade Tidwell, Carson Whisenhunt, and Keaton Winn.

The only names you might quibble with here are recent call-ups Turner Hill and Yunior Marte, but both have shown enough in the minors and majors this year that we can safely assume they'll stick around. That leaves us with 15 more roster spots to fill, and a group of 30 players to pull from. Here goes nothing.

Group 2: we've made it this far

The Giants signed three rehabbing relievers last winter: Jason Foley and Sam Hentges returned mid-season from shoulder surgeries, while Rowan Wick should be back from Tommy John early next year. Foley and Hentges have been inconsistent, but we know shoulder injuries can take time to come back from, and both have strong track records of big-league success. The same is true of Wick, whose team option is likely to be picked up as long as they are pleased with the progress of his rehab.

I'll also include catcher Daniel Susac in this group. Posey took him in last year's Rule 5 draft and rostered him until he suffered a season-ending injury, and he performed well enough offensively and defensively to merit consideration for next year's starting job.

These guys are all likely to stay. That's 29 roster spots filled, 11 to go.

Group 3: a little depth never hurt anyone

The group of locks includes outfielders Jung Hoo Lee, Drew Gilbert, and Jonah Cox in addition to Hill and Davidson. That's a solid cohort, and here we'll round it out with Victor Bericoto. The righty power bat returned from the IL with a bang on Saturday, and has cemented himself as a candidate for playing time in left field.

The infield is mostly set as well, but there is certainly room for Christian Koss, who has rebounded from a slow start to take advantage of the everyday role he was thrust into after injuries to Matt Chapman and Willy Adames. Koss is slashing .297/.338/.453 in September, and is one of the only non-Adames infielders the Giants trust to play short.

Lastly, because it's good to have more than one catcher, I will include Jesus Rodriguez and Drew Cavanaugh. Cavanaugh destroyed Triple-A this year, and Rodriguez offers impressive versatility, having already seen time at catcher, second base, and both outfield corners in the bigs. The Giants clearly like these guys, and both should be back. That leaves seven spots to fill.

Group 4: someone has to pitch

Things get murky with the remaining batch of pitchers. We can start by waving through Cesar Perdomo and Anthony Molina, who have each held down a rotation spot for the past few weeks and at least shown the potential to be solid big league starters. While the shaky bullpen has gotten more attention, the current 40-man is sorely lacking healthy arms to provide bulk behind Logan Webb and Landen Roupp, so letting either of these guys go would be a mistake.

Speaking of that bullpen, there should be room for Joel Peguero and Jose Butto, who have both been good enough when healthy that they are worth keeping around.

This leaves three more roster spots, all of which should go to pitchers. There are no real wrong answers here, and some of these spots are probably still be up for grabs, but as of now I'm going to give the nods to Duncan Davitt, Carson Seymour, and Braxton Roxby. Ask me again in an hour, and I'll probably have three different names for you.

Who's gone?

Let's start with the pitchers left on the bubble, in roughly descending order of how hard they will be to part with: Ryan Walker, Tristan Beck, Matt Gage, Joel Kuhnel, Seth Lonsway, and Reiver Sanmartin are all candidates to get axed. A couple of these guys might qualify as trade bait, but the return for any of them will be minimal, and DFAs are more likely.

Among the likely-to-be-jettisoned bats, the name that stands out is Harrison Bader, a free agent acquisition who is still under contract for 2027. While we have been speculating about Bader's departure for months because of his suspension for off-the-field hijinks, my expectation that he'll be gone is mostly due to his dismal on-field performance and the emergence of several young outfielders.

The other outfielder who could be an odd man out is Scott Bandura, who remains low on the depth chart despite his excellent performance in the minor leagues this year. The Giants would love to keep him around as a depth option, but their roster situation makes that difficult, and it doesn't help that he's left-handed hitter on an already lefty-heavy team. He deserves a shot somewhere, and they should be able to find a trade partner for him.

The remaining cuts are easier to swallow. Andrew Knizner, Osleivis Basabe, Shay Whitcomb, Nate Furman, and Brett Harris have had their moments, but all of them are replaceable. Ditto Grant McCray, who has simply never hit enough to justify keeping him around for his defense. And Zach Morgan is, at best, the team's fourth-string catcher – there is a good chance he will clear waivers and be able to stay with the organization.

I should also note that the Giants will likely add one or more minor leaguers to their 40-man to protect them in the Rule 5 draft, meaning even more cuts (or trades) are coming down the line. Those transactions won't happen for a few more months, though, so here I just focused on the first wave of guys to go.

With four games remaining, and new injuries popping up every day, exactly how the next edition of the 40-man roster will look is anyone's guess, but this exercise provided a rough framework for how the team might approach this daunting task. There is a lot of uncertainty about the next MLB season, but one thing is clear: if the Giants want to compete in 2027, a lot about their roster needs to change, and these looming cuts are just the beginning.

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