Why SF Giants fans should have faith Willy Adames can turn it around

When Willy Adames was signed by the SF Giants to the largest contract in franchise history, there were lofty expectations attached to the star shortstop. At seven years, $182 million, Adames was paid to be a high-level player at a high-value position.

His first two months in San Francisco have gone about as rough as one could imagine. The 29-year-old has been worth -0.4 bWAR, hitting for a .198 batting average, a .288 OBP and a .312 slugging percentage. A year after receiving MVP votes for the Brewers, Adames has looked nothing like himself.

Why SF Giants shortstop Willy Adames can turn things around

It's understandable that Giants fans would be worried. After all, Adames is in the first year of his deal, and he only gets more expensive over time. The infielder did show improvement last month, raising his OPS from .592 in April to .652 in May. That was before his slow start to June. Adames has just one hit this month so far.

However, there is hope for Adames. Taking a look at a few advanced metrics, let's break down why Adames is struggling and how he can improve.

He's still walking

One piece of good news for Adames is that he is still taking his walks. Adames holds a BB% of 10.9%, which is a small improvement from his 10.8% last season. While he is striking out at a 26.4% rate, it is not super alarming because Adames has always been a high strikeout hitter. Last year, he struck out 25.1% of the time and still enjoyed one of the best offensive seasons of his career.

His hard hit rate looks fine too

Adames is also hitting the ball harder than he did last year. In 2024, he had a 40.7% hard hit rate. That has improved to 42.7% in 2025. His barrel rate, on the other hand, is down from 12% to 9.9%.

His range is down...but his speed is up

Defensively, Adames has taken quite the dip so far this year. His fielding run value, according to Baseball Savant, has dipped from 0 to -1, while his outs above average have fallen from 1 to -2. However, he's actually running slightly faster than last year. His sprint speed has improved from 27.4 miles per hour to 27.7 miles per hour.

He's still hitting fastballs

A big sign of a player in decline is the inability to hit the fastball. That has not been the case for Adames. While his actual numbers (.221 average, .345 slugging) are down from 2024, his expected numbers (.244 average, .460 slugging) are identical to his expected metrics in 2024. He's also whiffing 9% less against fastballs compared to last year.

So what's the problem....

Adames has apparently lost his ability to hit breaking balls and off-speed pitches, which he's seeing 41.8% of the time. Against breaking balls, he's hitting .171 and slugging .289, while whiffing 38.7% of the time. Against offspeed pitches, it's been even worse. Adames is hitting .100 against offspeed pitches, without a single extra base hit, and is whiffing at an alarming 55.4% clip.

Adames has never struggled this much against off-speed pitches, and the problem, it seems, lies in the launch angle. While his launch angles against fastballs and breaking balls appear sound, Adames has a -24 launch angle when facing off-speed, easily the worst of his career.

It's a major reason why his launch-angle sweet-spot percentage has dipped from 38.2% in 2024 to 28.7% in 2025. One of the best indicators of solid contact is the launch angle sweet spot. Too much angle usually results in a pop-up or a whiff. Too little angle often leads to a weak groundball. The sweet spot results in solid line drives and fly balls, most likely to lead to base hits.

Essentially, Adames is finding the sweet spot of his launch angle, only three-fourths of the amount he did last year. That is a huge difference, and it's placing him in the 13th percentile according to Baseball Savant.

What's the good news?

The good news is that it appears Adames is facing a swing issue. He is still hitting the ball hard, and his strikeout and walk ratios have been mostly consistent with his career rates. Adames should be able to work with coaches and tools to revamp his swing. Whether that can be a mid-season adjustment will remain to be seen, but long-term, these are not the signs of an aging player on the decline. These are signs of a player in a prolonged slump, who needs to make a few corrections to his swing. Adames should bounce back, and hopefully soon.