Why Bryce Eldridge has a real case for National League Rookie of the Year

When a season goes as poorly as this one has gone for the SF Giants so far, the sanest thing to do is to look for bright spots. And this team actually has a few of them, maybe even more than you expect.

Luis Arraez has been a revelation at second base and could net them one or two interesting prospects. Casey Schmitt is having a breakout year. The farm system has performed really well and represents the hope that better days are ahead. The overall offense and the big-contract guys have looked much better over the last couple of months after a disastrous start. And lastly, Bryce Eldridge has a genuine shot at becoming just the sixth player in the San Francisco era to win the National League Rookie of the Year award. Current president of baseball operations Buster Posey was the last Giant to earn the honor, in 2010.

Ever since he was drafted in the first round of the 2023 MLB Draft, Eldridge has been expected to make an impact at the big-league level. But not this type of impact this early in his career. After only three and a half seasons in professional baseball, the 21-year-old has already established himself as a lock in the middle of this lineup. Given the current state of the franchise from a record standpoint, Eldridge is probably one of two players—along with ace Logan Webb—perceived as truly untouchable at the deadline. Everybody else has basically been made available to bolster a farm system already on the rise.

And Eldridge wants to be here. He wants to be the face of this franchise. In his first full season in the big leagues, the 21-year-old slugger has already rewritten a few pages of the organization's history books, and he's not done.

By hitting his 10th home run of the season earlier this week in Seattle, he became the first Giants hitter age 21 or younger to hit 10 homers since Jack Clark in 1977, when he hit 13 of them in 136 games. Reaching 20 on the year is very clearly attainable, and doing so would make him just the fifth rookie in the San Francisco era to reach that mark.

Earlier this season, Eldridge put together the longest on-base streak since Posey in 2010, reaching base safely in 22 consecutive games. And he didn't settle for merely reaching base—he did so in emphatic fashion, slashing .403/.489/.701 with a 1.190 OPS, five home runs, eight doubles, 14 RBIs and 18 runs while recording as many walks as strikeouts (14). He also delivered one of the franchise's most memorable moments in recent history when he hit a now-legendary walk-off grand slam against the Nationals earlier this year.

As for the Rookie of the Year Award? He's not the favorite right now, but he has a shot.

Where does he rank among rookies?

Unlike most of the other serious candidates for the award, Eldridge didn't start the year on a major-league roster but in Triple-A with the River Cats. Since he was called up on May 4 to try to rejuvenate a lifeless offense, he's been among the best in basically every offensive category.

His .271 batting average is tied for the third-highest among National League rookies with at least 150 plate appearances. He ranks first in slugging percentage at .483, second in on-base percentage at .366, and second in OPS at .849. As for his overall impact, his wRC+—a metric that estimates a hitter's total offensive production while adjusting for league and ballpark conditions—sits at 135, with 100 representing league average.

Despite Eldridge playing roughly 40 fewer games than the current favorites to win the award, his raw numbers are relatively close to theirs. Sal Stewart of the Reds and JJ Wetherholt of the Cardinals have racked up 20 and 14 home runs in 99 and 94 games, respectively. Eldridge has 10 in just 58 games. In 166 fewer at-bats, Eldridge has more doubles (13) than Wetherholt. The same goes for walks, with Eldridge drawing 31 in 203 plate appearances, while Stewart, who leads all NL rookies in free passes, has drawn just 15 more in almost twice as many plate appearances (432).

With over 60 games still to be played, Eldridge still has time to close the gap in those numbers and make his case even harder to ignore. As things currently stand, though, Eldridge owns the sixth-highest odds to win the award, according to ESPN.

His numbers have been impressive, but his impact goes beyond

His evolution since his first stint in the majors last year has been impressive, especially for a 21-year-old. His whiff rate has gone down from 35.4% in 2025 to just 24.6% this season. He's lowered his strikeout rate by nearly 10 percentage points, from 35.1% last season to 25.5% so far this year. What's been most striking, though, is his maturity at the plate. His feel for the strike zone and overall comfort at the plate have turned him into a different player. His use of the ABS system is good proof of that improvement. With a 77% ABS challenge success rate, Eldridge has the fourth-highest rate in the majors among players with at least 10 challenges.

His refined plate discipline has also led to a whole lot of walks. Only Matt Chapman (37 in 352 plate appearances) and Rafael Devers (39 in 425) have drawn more walks than he has this season. Eldridge has drawn 31 of them in just 235 plate appearances and will most likely lead the team in that category once the season comes to an end.

The expectations around Eldridge have always been about his power, his ability to smash the ball out of the park, and his ability to hit the ball very hard (his 113.4 mph double against the D-Backs on May 20 is still the hardest-hit ball by any Giants player this season). But he's done much more than provide power; he's helped turn this offense around. The traffic he creates on the bases has played a key role in this offense going from one of the worst in the majors in March and April to one of the most productive since May. The numbers bear that out.

Before his call-up on May 4, the Giants ranked last in runs scored and 29th in OPS. Since then, they've scored an above-average number of runs, and their .767 OPS during that span is the third-highest in the majors. No, Eldridge didn't do it on his own. Veteran players such as Devers, Willy Adames and Chapman have played more like themselves, while Lee and Arraez have been among the best hitters in the league. But it would also be foolish to downplay the impact Eldridge has had on this lineup. Over his last 47 games, he's reached base safely in 44 of them. A lineup as talented as the Giants' is going to take advantage of that kind of traffic.

He would need a big second half to become a serious contender for the award. Four games into it, he's already homered twice and reached base in all four. Even if he doesn't win this one, more prestigious awards may await him in the future—perhaps even sooner than we expect. Because that's what he does. He exceeds expectations.

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