Casey Schmitt’s SF Giants breakout is real, but one red flag still follows him

When a player finishes his night with a home run, a double, a couple of runs batted in, and a walk, the last feat surely isn't expected to be the most meaningful one. For Casey Schmitt on Thursday night, it was.

Schmitt entered the game without having drawn a walk since May 24 against the Chicago White Sox, more than a month ago. The drought eventually came to an end after 40 games and 173 plate appearances, the longest span without a walk by a Giants player since Hal Lanier in 1964, when he went 279 plate appearances without registering a free pass.

The moment happened in the fifth inning of the Giants' 8-2 win over the Colorado Rockies at Oracle Park, in his third at-bat against Ryan Feltner. After Schmitt sent the ball over the fence on the second pitch he saw and lined out in the third inning, the Giants' Swiss Army Knife finally put an end to the streak with a four-pitch walk.

Giants manager Tony Vitello, who opened his postgame presser by pointing out that "Schmitty walked," admitted that the team had been keeping track of the drought.

"It was a pretty good tally, he was (keeping track) too I think," he said. "He'll tease around and joke around, but he's a really intelligent kid, but he keeps things very simple. And when he goes up there he wants to hit."

During that 46-day drought, Schmitt's stat line showed one very intriguing pattern: his on-base percentage (.251) was lower than his batting average (.255). It can be hard to grasp at first, but the explanation behind it is pretty simple. Schmitt had one sacrifice fly during that span, and sacrifice flies hurt on-base percentage by increasing the denominator but don't impact batting average.

Schmitt's walk issues are impossible to ignore

Schmitt has been one of the Giants' most consistent hitters and producers so far this season. His home run against the Rockies on Thursday was his 18th of the year, tying Rafael Devers for the team lead, and his two RBIs brought his season total to 47, the second-most on the team behind only Devers' 49.

But when a hitter relies solely on making contact and generating power to be productive, regression is almost always expected because hitters go through slumps, even the best ones. And when a hitter experiences a slump, he can lean on his ability to draw walks to help keep his on-base percentage and production afloat. With Schmitt, if he doesn't hit, he doesn't provide much offensive value.

On the season, Schmitt has walked just eight times in 85 games, which adds up to a 2.0% walk rate, the lowest in the majors among qualified players. What has made Schmitt's season so impressive is that he hasn't experienced many of those slumps, though he had been stuck in a two-week funk before his big night on Thursday.

Schmitt entered the game batting just .151 with a .148 on-base percentage and a .374 OPS over his previous 14 games. As expected, his production went from all to nothing when he stopped making consistent contact.

His inability to draw free passes will also change the way pitchers approach him. Given his league-low walk rate, they have less reason to challenge him with strikes, at least until he proves he can draw walks consistently. Instead, they can pitch around the zone and force him to chase, something Schmitt has done frequently over his four-year career. Schmitt has posted a 35.7% chase rate over his career, compared with the MLB average of 28.6%. His 37.5% rate this season is the highest on the team among qualified hitters and ranks in the league's 11th percentile.

Regression is expected, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's coming. Maybe Schmitt continues to hit well for the rest of the year. Maybe he finally starts to draw walks on a regular basis. One thing walks aren't going to impact is the plays he can pull off on the other side of the ball.

Since Matt Chapman went on the injured list on July 1 with an abdominal strain, Schmitt has been filling in at third base, and he's been so good that you wouldn't know a five-time Gold Glove Award winner was missing.

Schmitt has looked most comfortable at the hot corner, making highlight play after highlight play. His jaw-dropping double play and throw from foul territory last week in Colorado even earned him MLB's Play of the Week Award.

Being able to come up with plays like this one despite being moved around the field all season makes it even more impressive. This season alone, Schmitt has played six different positions, including designated hitter. By homering at all six positions, he became the first player in Giants history and just the 12th in MLB history to do so. He's building a reputation around the league, and the Giants should be prepared to receive some calls with the trade deadline looming.

Schmitt could start drawing trade interest

A player like Schmitt can't stay in the shadows forever. Teams are undoubtedly starting to notice him, especially since he's making those types of plays at third base. While he isn't expected to be traded, nor should the Giants shop him, the front office should not rule out anything if a team is willing to put together a big package.

Basically every team could use a super-utility player like Schmitt who makes contact and hits for power, but one team stands out with an obvious need: the Philadelphia Phillies. Currently second in the NL East with a 52-42 record, the Phillies could emerge as a potential suitor for Schmitt to bolster their infield, as Alec Bohm, their everyday third baseman, is hitting just .220 with a .647 OPS and has posted -5 Outs Above Average in 89 games this season, the fourth-worst mark among third basemen. It's a small sample size, but Schmitt has posted a .903 OPS and +2 Outs Above Average in 11 starts at third base.

But as I mentioned earlier, Schmitt isn't expected to be traded, especially given the high likelihood of Luis Arraez departing. Arraez and Robbie Ray are the two main trade candidates on that Giants' roster. If the former were to leave, a spot at second base would open up, and Schmitt would automatically take over the job.

This is all hypothetical. One thing that's factual is that Schmitt has been a feel-good story in what has been a dismal season in the Bay. A few tweaks to his plate discipline, and he could reach even greater heights.

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