The numbers behind SF Giants rookie Bryce Eldridge’s prolonged slump

A 21-year-old isn't supposed to be as good and productive as Bryce Eldridge has been in his first near-full season in the major leagues. Eldridge played just 43 games in Double-A and 104 in Triple-A before making his second and final jump to the majors, and he won't turn 22 until October 20th, when this woeful Giants season will finally be over with.

However, expecting a player of his age — despite his immense talent — to remain consistent throughout a season isn't realistic. At some point, pitchers and teams were going to adjust to him. They were going to figure out soft spots in his game, and young hitters usually tend to struggle once that happens. That has been the case over the last month and a half after a scorching start to his season that propelled him into the NL Rookie of the Year race.

Over his first 32 games since being called up on May 4, although his playing time was spotty initially, Eldridge batted .324, reached base more than 40% of the time and posted a .959 OPS. More impressively, his strikeout rate — which had been an issue during his first stint in the majors last year — was below league average at 19.8%, and his 13.5% walk rate was top-tier.

Bryce Eldridge is going through his first major slump

Since mid-June, though, his overall numbers have looked much more like those of a player with his experience. He's batted to a .196 average with a .636 OPS over his last 43 games, and his strikeout rate is back to concerning heights at 31.7%. On the surface, the drop-off in production is scary and concerning, but a deeper dig into the numbers shows that Eldridge isn't necessarily chasing more or losing his power.

His plate discipline has remained steady, if not improved. Over those 43 games, only Rafael Devers owns a higher walk rate than Eldridge; he's one of just four Giants players who have homered at least six times during that stretch, and his barrel rate and average exit velocity have barely moved. His strikeout rate rising back is concerning, though. But it hasn't gone up because Eldridge is wildly swinging at pitches outside the zone, as his chase rate is even down 3.5 percentage points compared to his first 32 games. Instead, he's become more/too selective with the pitches he gets, and pitchers have targeted his flaws more.

The contact with the ball simply hasn't been of the same quality and consistency even though pitchers have actually thrown Eldridge more strikes over the last month and a half than during his first 32 games. But the 21-year-old is whiffing at those pitches more — he's posted 28.8% whiff rate over his last 43 games compared to 21.4% over first 32. He's also more rarely swinging and making less contact with balls inside the strike zone — his zone-swing rate is down from 69.8% to 59.6% while his zone-contact rate has lost more than six percentage points. Those numbers suggest that Eldridge is chasing less, whiffing more, and becoming overly passive inside the zone, which all led to less contact in quantity and quality.

One thing that hasn't changed, though, is Eldridge's ability to hammer fastballs. On the season, he's now batting .333 with a .694 slugging percentage and a 67.3% hard-hit rate against four-seamers. Pitchers noticed that, and while they haven't stopped throwing him heaters, they've ramped up their usage of a pitch that Eldridge has really struggled to square up: the slider. Since mid-June, Eldridge is batting just .083 with a .208 slugging percentage, a 42.2% whiff rate, and a 48.1% strikeout rate against sliders. So obviously, he's going to see more of that pitch until he can figure it out.

To sum up, Eldridge is chasing less — which is actually very encouraging for his development — but he's also allowed more strikes to pass him by without swinging at them. And when he does offer, he's making considerably less contact than earlier in the season. The power is still there — the barrel rate and average exit velocity have remained unchanged, and the hard-hit rate is still among the best on the team — but he's putting fewer balls in play, hitting fewer line drives while grounding out and popping up more often than before.

Manager Tony Vitello has decided to slot Eldridge in the leadoff spot over the last five games. Eldridge has also been dealing with a thumb injury that kept him out of the lineup two days in a row last week. He's become an even more foundational piece of that lineup and clubhouse after the Giants' flurry of moves at the trade deadline. A lot of things have changed over the last few weeks, and sometimes it can take time to get adjusted to those changes, especially when you are 21 years old.

Eldridge still had a moment during that rough extended stretch when he collected a clutch two-run hit as a pinch hitter against one of the toughest lefties in the game in the Texas Rangers' Jacob Latz. He's still managed to make an impact even when not making consistent contact with the ball, reaching base safely in 58 of his last 64 games dating back to May 23.

He's also etched his name into the Giants' record books by becoming the first Giants rookie 21 years old or younger to hit at least 11 home runs since Jack Clark collected 13 of them in 1977. He became the youngest player in MLB history and first rookie in Giants history to hit a walk-off grand slam. By reaching base safely in 22 consecutive games, he put together the longest on-base streak by a Giant age 21 or younger since Willie McCovey reached 25 games back in 1959. That's a decorated resumé for a 21-year-old rookie.

That's why his first real extended stretch in the big leagues is already a big success. Now, the remainder of the season will reveal how quickly Eldridge can make his own adjustments after opposing pitchers have made theirs. Can he become more aggressive against hittable pitches in the zone? Can he start making solid contact against sliders? Can he keep his improved chase rate down? Can he keep his strikeout rate around 25%? He has 44 games left to prove he can.

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