PECOTA projections has SF Giants on the fringes of a Wild Card playoff spot

Baseball Prospectus has published its PECOTA projected standings for 2026. The latest model has the SF Giants on the fringes of a playoff spot with 81.5 wins.

PECOTA projections has SF Giants narrowly missing Wild Card spot

On the bright side, the Giants are projected to see a 0.5-win improvement over last season's total! The bad news is that they are still stuck in the middle without a plan to get out of that. At least, that is how the projection sees this roster.

The PECOTA projection has the Los Angeles Dodgers comfortably winning the NL West with 103.8 wins. The Giants' competition includes the New York Mets (89.0 wins) and Philadelphia Phillies (85.5 wins), along with the Padres (80.8 wins).

Oddly, the Padres were projected to be above the Giants a couple of days ago. They had an eventful weekend, adding Nick Castellanos, Griffin Canning, and Germán Márquez. Evidently, that did not help their projected win total according to this model.

Interestingly, this model has the Atlanta Braves winning the NL East after winning just 76 games last season. There is too much talent on that team to put up another disappointing year, as they did last year.

These projections also highlight that the barrier to reach the playoffs in the NL is relatively low in 2026. In most seasons, it takes at least 85 wins to even be in the playoff picture. In 2025, the Cincinnati Reds snuck in as the third Wild Card team with 83 wins.

The Giants have made a handful of notable moves this offseason. This includes adding Adrian Houser, Tyler Mahle, Harrison Bader, and Luis Arráez. The one notable departure was Justin Verlander, who put up a 3.85 ERA in 29 starts last season.

They added veteran rotation depth, upgraded outfield defense, and lengthened the lineup with these moves. None of them necessarily raise the ceiling, but they do maintain the floor of an 81-win team. The bullpen was an issue by the end of last season, and the front office has not done a lot to upgrade that unit. Buster Posey even hinted that there would be an open competition for nearly every bullpen role this spring.

That could be what prevents the Giants from reaching a higher win total. The 2026 ZiPS projected standings had the Giants winning 84 games. This was before the Arráez signing. The lineup and rotation would need to carry a heavy workload to cover up a bullpen that looks it may struggle to preserve leads and close out games.

That said, a number of front office executives have pegged the Giants as one of the most improved teams in the NL. If they show improvement from their 81-win season in 2025, there is a chance that they sneak into the playoff picture.