ZiPS projection for 2026 gives the SF Giants a leg up in the standings

On Thursday, Dan Szymborski of Fangraphs published his updated ZiPS projected standings for 2026. Not surprisingly, the Los Angeles Dodgers come out on top in the NL West with 96 wins, but the SF Giants sneak could sneak into second place with 84 wins.

ZiPS projection for 2026 gives the SF Giants a leg up in the standings

Szymborski questions the rotation depth for the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks, as they are projected to finish third and fourth, respectively, in the NL West. Injuries could hold either of those teams back.

The same is true for the Giants. Outside of Logan Webb and Robbie Ray, the rotation does not have a lot of volume coverage. They will likely need to lean on Hayden Birdsong, Trevor McDonald, and Blade Tidwell to fill the gaps.

Webb and Ray will likely be joined by Adrian Houser, Tyler Mahle, and Landen Roupp on the Opening Day rotation. Every one of those pitchers finished last year with an ERA below four, but Houser does not have much of a track record for success and Mahle has only made 24 starts since the start of the 2023 season.

While the rotation now has some veteran length to it, the bullpen still needs a lot of work. There is no blueprint for how the Giants plan to preserve leads and close out games. That could be a critical roster flaw, if it is not fixed.

Szymborski highlights that the Giants should have a competent lineup. Rafael Devers, Matt Chapman, and Willy Adames will lead that unit. Heliot Ramos and Jung Hoo Lee are capable hitters as well. Bryce Eldridge is projected to be a league-average hitter, which would not be a bad outcome in his age-21 season.

Casey Schmitt and Harrison Bader will likely hit lower in the lineup. They may not be able to carry a lineup, but there is modest power in both of their offensive profiles. Patrick Bailey is the only extreme weak spot, and he offsets that with Gold Glove defense behind the plate.

The lineup should be good enough to win some games, even if it may not be the best in baseball. The offense will depend on Devers being more of the hitter he was before the trade, and keeping Matt Chapman healthy. It is hard to ignore how much better the Giants were when Chapman was in the lineup. In fact, they put up a 68-60 record in games he appeared in last season.

The Giants' roster has its strengths, but it has some weaknesses as well. They are not alone in that regard. The Padres and Diamondbacks have some weaknesses as well, and the ZiPS projections show that.

While teams cannot hang their hats on promising projection models, it does highlight that the NL West is becoming vulnerable. The Giants could take advantage of that by making at least one more big move.