Patrick Bailey trade signals enormous faith in SF Giants' young talent

The San Francisco Giants' trading Patrick Bailey to the Cleveland Guardians Saturday brought an abrupt end to the two-time Gold Glove winner's up-and-down tenure as the team's starting catcher. Buster Posey's decision to move on from Bailey is bold on its own, and doubly so given that the bulk of playing time at the position going forward will most likely be given to two rookies with a combined 15 games of MLB experience under their belts.

In the immediate aftermath of the trade, the Giants recalled Logan Porter from AAA, allowing them to keep a third catcher on the active roster alongside rookie Jesus Rodriguez and veteran Eric Haase. However, Porter's time in the majors will probably be short-lived, as rehabbing rookie Daniel Susac is more likely to inherit Bailey's playing time once healthy. The consensus is that Susac and Rodriguez – who have hit extraordinarily well in their tiny samples of big league playing time – are likely to split catching duties with Haase being a third option who does not figure to get as many starts at the position.

The reasons to jettison Bailey were clear from an offensive standpoint – he has been one of the worst hitters in MLB this year, full stop. A team performing so poorly on offense simply could not afford to keep his bat in the lineup on a regular basis. He was already losing playing time to Rodriguez, and the writing was on the wall as Susac neared full health and continued to swing a hot bat on his rehab assignment. Nevertheless, leaving the catching job in the hands of two players with so little experience – and defensive pedigrees nowhere near that of Bailey – is undoubtedly risky.

Clearly, this move was as much about Susac and Rodriguez playing themselves into the mix as it was Bailey playing himself out of it. But more than a handful of good games, it reflects how the Giants have viewed and continue to view their respective abilities. They traded another minor leaguer and cash considerations to acquire Susac after he was taken by the Twins in December's Rule 5 Draft, knowing they would lose the rights to his services if he did not make the team out of spring training. And Rodriguez was the centerpiece of the return from last year's trade of All-Star closer Camilo Doval to the Yankees – a return that seemed underwhelming at the time.

Can rookie catchers really make a difference?

As badly as the Giants' offense needs a major boost, it is fair to question whether these two players can provide it in the right way. They already have two contact-oriented hitters near the top of their lineup in Jung Hoo Lee and Luis Arraez, and are tied for last in the majors in home runs. Two rookies with limited power potential who each produced somewhat flukey .400 batting averages and will likely face significant regression as the league adjusts to their weaknesses may not be the saviors this lineup needs.

In fairness, it was unlikely that Bailey, or any other catcher available to them, was going to provide that type of power either – but if they were never going to get offense out of the catcher position, then getting rid of their all-world defender would be a mistake. This is a move you make if you are confident that at least one of these guys can hit, and hit well. (And, it should be noted, Posey cited their improvement on defense as another reason he felt comfortable making the move.)

This trade has been called "stunning," among other superlatives – deservedly so. But the most shocking aspect of it is the decision to go all-in on two catching prospects on whom the industry's consensus is, at best, mixed. Buster Posey and the Giants are entrusting their pitching staff to a player who the A's declined to protect in the Rule 5 Draft and a middle-of-the-road prospect who the Yankees had no problem parting with at last year's trade deadline.

There are many ways in which this season has gone wrong already for this team, and many more ways in which it could continue to spiral. If the Giants miss the playoffs, it will probably not be the fault of Susac or Rodriguez. But the decision to go all-in on them will have an outsized impact on our perception of Posey's ability to construct a competitive roster. He believes in these guys, a lot. Let's see if he's right.

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