One jarring weakness explains a lot about the SF Giants’ disappointing season

When asked in a recent interview on KNBR what had gone wrong in the first half of the season for the SF Giants, president of baseball operations Buster Posey didn’t go with the bullpen woes, the starting rotation’s inconsistencies or his team’s very slow offensive start to the season. Instead, he went with the walks as a whole. And it’s hard to disagree, as the Giants’ minus-121 walk differential is the worst in baseball.

Both offensively and in terms of pitching, walks have been one of the main elements preventing this team from putting together a solid stretch of games — winning four consecutive games, for instance, something they still haven’t done despite a noticeable uptick in production over the past three months.

Since May, the Giants have ranked seventh in batting average, third in slugging percentage and fifth in OPS. The one facet of the game they have not found a way to develop is drawing walks, as their 7% walk rate during that span is the lowest in the league. They’ve ranked last in the league in total walks since April 8.

Not being able to earn free passes has contributed significantly to the team ranking just 18th in runs scored during that stretch, despite the top-tier numbers in the other categories noted above. Furthermore, despite having collected the seventh-most hits and recorded the third-most doubles, Giants batters have taken the 12th-fewest at-bats with runners on base and the 11th-fewest with runners in scoring position. Throw in the fact that the team has stolen the fifth-fewest bases in the league, and walks have basically been a non-factor for this offense.

Walks have also hurt them on the mound. As a team, the Giants have issued the seventh-most walks in the majors. Two of their five starters — Landen Roupp and Robbie Ray — rank in the top six in the National League in walks issued. The average walk rate in the league right now is 8.4%, and of the 14 pitchers — starters or relievers — who have made at least 15 appearances with the Giants this season, only Logan Webb (6.2%), Adrian Houser (7.6%) and Keaton Winn (8.1%) have posted a better-than-average walk rate.

The SF Giants who should be walking haven't been

For a team to live up to its expectations, its main guys have to play up to their usual level — or better, if they want to exceed those expectations. When they don’t, it creates the kind of situation the Giants have found themselves in with walks.

Last season, Rafael Devers (15.4% walk rate) posted the fifth-highest walk rate in the majors and set a new career-best in total walks with 112 of them. This season, Devers is on pace to register his lowest mark since 2022. Willy Adames came into his second season with the Giants having posted double-digit walk rate in four of his last five seasons. The 6.6% mark he's put up so far would be a career low, by a big margin.

Even Heliot Ramos, Jung Hoo Lee and Casey Schmitt, who all contributed to the Giants finishing in the top six in total walks last season, have seen their numbers crater. Lee’s walk rate has dropped by more than three percentage points. Ramos is on pace to set a new career low. Schmitt even made some history by not drawing a single walk over 173 plate appearances, the longest such span by a Giant since Hal Lanier in 1964. His 2.8% walk rate this season is the lowest in the majors among qualified hitters.

We’ve seen firsthand the impact walks can have on an offense with the arrival of Bryce Eldridge. Called up on May 4, the 21-year-old has played a notable role in rejuvenating what once looked like a lifeless offense, not only with his bat but also by creating traffic on the bases, by reaching base without a hit, and by putting pressure on the opposing pitcher.

Since he joined the big-league roster in May, only Luis Arraez and his elite batting average has a higher on-base percentage than Eldridge. As of July 24, Eldridge has also drawn the third-most walks on the roster despite logging 165 fewer plate appearances than fourth-ranked Adames. He is just six walks behind Chapman and his 352 plate appearances and nine behind Devers and his 433 plate appearances. Eldridge has drawn 31 walks in 243 trips to the plate. At this rate, he’ll lead the team in that category before the end of the season.

I’ve talked a lot about how the lack of walks has hampered run production, but walks have been even more detrimental on the other end. Walks have cost the Giants what feels like a ton of games. So many times this season, teams have started their rallies by drawing a leadoff walk. It’s not just a feeling; the numbers back it up. In high-leverage situations this season — game moments in which the outcome of one plate appearance could significantly change either team’s chances of winning — Giants pitchers have posted the fifth-highest walk rate in the majors. Look no further than the Giants’ 3-2 loss to the Royals this week and what fueled Kansas City’s two-run rally in the sixth: a leadoff walk issued by Tyler Mahle.

It all leads to the number I tossed at you in the first paragraph: the minus-121 walk differential. It’s been an oddity for the Giants to be this bad in that area of the game. Since 2021, they’ve had positive walk differentials four times. They ranked in the top four in three consecutive seasons from 2021 to 2023, including first in 2021 with a plus-186 figure. With basically the same on-base threats in the lineup, they ranked sixth last season. But this season has been different in many ways. Walks are just one of them.

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