Why the SF Giants should avoid trading for power-hitting outfielder

The Houston Astros are open to trading three-time All-Star Kyle Tucker with the SF Giants among the interested teams according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. While he would undoubtedly improve the 2025 roster, it would be a bad idea for a team that only won 80 games in 2024.

Why the SF Giants should avoid trading for power-hitting outfielder

Sherman notes that the New York Yankees, Chicago Cubs, and Philadelphia Phillies are among the other teams involved in trade talks. The Yankees and Cubs are seen as the two teams most motivated to acquire Tucker.

The Astros are looking for major-league corner infielders and starting pitching in a deal for Tucker. The Giants could certainly match up in terms of starting pitching. They have a handful of young starters such as Kyle Harrison, Hayden Birdsong, and Carson Whisenhunt.

They are a little lighter on corner infielders. Casey Schmitt might fit that description. Despite a strong finish to the year, the right-handed bat has struggled in parts of two seasons with San Francisco. The value of being a centerpiece or complimentary piece just is not there. If the Astros are looking for a first baseman, the Giants have Bryce Eldridge but he is seemingly untouchable.

Even if the Giants could work out a deal for Tucker that does not include Eldridge, it would not be a good idea. Tucker has had an impressive career thus far, slashing .274/.353/.516 (139 wRC+) with a 10.8 percent walk rate, 16.0 percent strikeout rate, and .242 ISO in seven seasons with the Astros.

This includes a stellar 2023 campaign in which he posted an .886 OPS with 29 home runs and 112 RBI while finishing in fifth place in the AL MVP voting. Tucker missed part of the 2024 season with a shin fracture but he tallied a .993 OPS in 339 plate appearances.

There is no denying that the veteran bat would be an upgrade on just about every roster. He is also one year away from free agency and would only be 28 when the next offseason begins. Tucker is represented by Excel Sports Management, so there is a remote chance he could agree to an extension before hitting free agency, unlike many Scott Boras clients who prefer to reach free agency. I would put the odds of an extension at five percent and that might be generous. More than likely, Tucker will enter free agency next winter with a chance to land a lucrative payday.

That said, the Giants should avoid a trade. This has nothing to do with Tucker's performance on the field but rather the cost it would take for someone who might walk away in free agency.

The Yankees witnessed that firsthand recently as Juan Soto spurned them and agreed to a historic contract with the New York Mets. It was at this time last year when the Yankees acquired the left-handed bat along with Trent Grisham from the San Diego Padres in exchange for five players headlined by Michael King.

King quietly became an ace for the Padres, posting a 2.95 ERA in 31 appearances in 2024. Shortly after missing out on Soto, the Yankees responded by handing out an eight-year, $218 million deal to Max Fried. The deal will improve the roster in the short term but could look rough by the end of it.

Would they have made this deal if they still had King in the rotation? There is a good chance that would not be the case. However, would they have made the World Series without Soto? Also, a good chance that would not be the case. I doubt the Yankees regret making that trade whatsoever, but there are consequences for such a deal.

This is something the Giants should avoid. If they are interested, they can try for him as a free agent next offseason. Perhaps, if the Giants were one bat away, then you could make a stronger case that they should pursue a deal. However, they might be a .500 team even with the Willy Adames signing. Adding Tucker moves the needle, but not to the point where they would become NL West favorites or World Series contenders.