Why the SF Giants might need to swing a trade this week

The 2026 international free agency period opens up in a couple days. The SF Giants have one of the lowest bonus pools at $5.4 million and have long been connected to top middle infield prospect Luis Hernández. Might they need to swing a deal to welcome their new class?

Why the SF Giants might need to swing a trade this week

The Giants are still feeling the downstream effect of crossing the luxury tax in 2024. When they signed Willy Adames to a seven-year deal, they forfeited their second-and-fifth-round picks in the 2025 draft, as well as $1 million in international bonus pool funds in 2026.

Last offseason, Adames rejected a qualifying offer from the Milwaukee Brewers.  This means that there was draft and bonus capital tied to his name. The penalty can be prohibitive in some cases, but with a long-term deal, the nominal value from the signing usually outweighs the lost capital.

The good news is that the Giants reset those penalties by staying below the luxury tax in 2025. 

The Giants will still need to operate within constraints in the international signing period. The bonus pool of $5.4 million allotted to them is a hard cap. MLB will not approve any deals that exceed that amount. Signing bonuses below $10,000 do not count against the cap.

Teams generally have handshake agreements well in advance of the signing period. Those deals are usually finalized as soon as the signing period opens up.

For the Giants, they have been connected to middle infield prospect Luis Hernández out of Venezuela. If the signing goes through, it will mark the second straight year that the added one of the top prospects in this channel. Last year, they signed Josuar Gonzalez out of the Dominican Republic.

Hernández is expected to earn a signing bonus in the neighborhood of $5 million, or about 90 percent of the Giants’ bonus pool. They also are expected to make a couple more notable signings, which should push them close to their bonus pool cap.

While teams cannot exceed their bonus pool, they can supplement it through trades. The Giants did that last year when they shipped bullpen prospect William Kempner to the Miami Marlins for international bonus pool funds.

That trade might be a template for what is to come this week. If Hernández's bonus is even higher than expected, it could push them right against their bonus pool threshold. Even if the Giants do not make a move, it should be an exciting week for Giants fans, as the organization will land another top player in this channel.