What would it cost the SF Giants to sign a qualifying offer free agent this winter?

The qualifying offer is one of the first processes of the offseason. If the Giants sign a player who rejects a qualifying offer, what would the penalty be?

What would it cost the SF Giants to sign a qualifying offer free agent this winter?

MLB Trade Rumors explained what the penalty would be by putting teams into one of four categories. Those categories include revenue-sharing teams, non-CBT offenders, CBT offenders, and teams in limbo.

Why would a team be in limbo? This list is based on the assumption of where each team’s payroll stands. The luxury tax payroll for the 2025 season will be finalized later in the offseason.

There are resources like Cot’s and RosterResource that do a nice job of estimating these payroll numbers with great precision. MLB Trade Rumors is operating on the assumption that these payroll numbers are accurate, but there is always a margin for error with estimates.

Whenever I reference luxury tax payroll, I am using Cot’s. I have used that source for years.

So, why would a team be in limbo? The Houston Astros are right up against the $241 million Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold that it is too difficult to determine right now. RosterResource has them right below the threshold, whereas Cot’s has them right above the threshold.

The Giants were not CBT-offenders in 2025, so they reset their own penalties. They surpassed that mark with a CBT payroll of $249.1 million in 2024. That was well above the CBT threshold of $237 million.

When they signed Willy Adames, it came with a stiff penalty. Adames rejected a qualifying offer from the Milwaukee Brewers, so the Giants lost their second-and-fifth-highest selections in 2025 as well as $1 million in international bonus pool money in 2026.

The Giants came in comfortably below the $241 CBT threshold for 2025, with an estimated CBT payroll of $217.8 million, per Cot’s.

If they sign a player who rejects a qualifying offer this offseason, then they would lose their second-highest selection and $500,000 in international bonus pool money.

Some potential Giants targets will receive a qualifying offer, including Kyle Tucker and Ranger Suárez. However, Cody Bellinger is not eligible to receive one, as he has already been issued it once before.