What is the bar to a successful season for the SF Giants in 2027?

Buster Posey believes the SF Giants can compete for a playoff spot next season, but is that realistic? Perhaps, the realistic bar for success is some sort of win improvement or player development, but this is a question they need to answer.

Of course, any discussion about next season assumes there will be a next season. The current Competitive Bargaining Agreement (CBA) expires in the offseason.

At the very least, the Giants will have a busy start to the offseason, as they deal with a looming roster crunch. While we are now shifting focus to the offseason and next year, it likely does not need to be mentioned every time that a lockout is not only likely but expected.

Baseball has little to gain by missing a season, but it could miss games. No one knows what to expect, so we will proceed as if they will play games in 2027, even if it is a strike-shortened season.

After winning 65 games this season, Buster Posey responded with “I do believe we can,” when asked if they can contend next year by John Shea of The San Francisco Standard.

Posey is not going to suggest any other direction. After all, the ownership group, which includes Posey, have tickets to sell and it is hard to ignore that attendance waned as the season progressed.

Nevertheless, the Giants still drew healthy attendance numbers despite a disastrous product on the field. They can thank a loyal base of season-ticket holders for that, but the they have tickets to sell next year and the notion of rebuilding does not inspire folks to go to the games. They pretty much resembled a rebuilding team at the end of this year, and the overall attendance was sparse, excluding games against division opponents.

SF Giants need to define what success is with Buster Posey entering a potential lame-duck year

So, what is a successful season in 2027? If Posey is to be taken at his word, then that means competing for a playoff spot. That does not necessarily mean making the playoffs. Competing for a playoff spot would likely require at least an 18-game win improvement over this season.

That would put the Giants at 83 wins, which is often on the lower side of the playoff picture. The Arizona Diamondbacks missed the playoffs by two games after winning 86 games this year, so 83 wins will not cut it in many seasons.

The Giants might need 85 wins to be in the playoff conversation. They would need a 20-win improvement, which is not impossible but it is also unlikely. Unfortunately, the bar has been set very low. A 10-win improvement is a great outcome in most seasons, but they would not be anywhere near the playoffs in that scenario.

Maybe the bar for 2027 is development. Does next year serve as a springboard for future seasons in the same way 2008 and 2009 did?

This is an important detail that the Giants need to figure out. With Posey entering a potential lame-duck season, everyone should be on the same page for what would inspire them to extend him beyond next season. Presumably, the fates of the rest of the leadership group, including Zack Misasian and Tony Vitello, are also tied to Posey.

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