Ranking the 3 biggest SF Giants X-Factors heading into the 2025 season

The SF Giants once again face an uphill battle in an extremely competitive division. If they want to make enough noise to possibly make a run at a Wild Card spot, they’ll need quite a bit to break right for them this year. The success of the team will depend on a number of players, but we identified 3 X-Factors heading into the 2025 season.

Ranking the 3 biggest SF Giants X-Factors heading into the 2025 season

The health of their key contributors, combined with some of their younger players taking big steps forward, will be paramount to team success. Of course, they will need their veterans to take the lead, including a rebound season from one former All-Star reliever.

1. Reliever Camilo Doval

Camilo Doval saw himself go from an All-Star closer in 2023 to a minor leaguer in 2024, which could have shaken his confidence but also may have been a needed reality check. His walk rate spiked all the way up to 14.4%, which was handily higher than his previous career-high of 10.5% in 2022. Flamethrowers like him are often effectively wild, but the effectiveness didn’t happen all that often for him last season. He also saw his barrel rate, which had been in the 88th percentile during his All-Star campaign, fall all the way to the 30th percentile.

Though he still converted 23 saves in 28 opportunities, Ryan Walker has now surpassed him as the favorite for the lion’s share of closing opportunities. Doval re-emerging as a quality setup option would do wonders to solidify the back end of the bullpen and take pressure off a potentially shaky rotation. Old friend Yusmeiro Petit has been a mentor to him so far in spring training, and the coaching staff will undoubtedly prioritize getting Doval back on track.

2. Outfielder Luis Matos

Matos briefly burst onto the scene with a torrid 10-for-26 run in six May games, becoming the first Giant to win NL Player of the Week honors since Brandon Belt in 2018 (which seems incredible that it took so long). Matos even drove in a whopping 11 runs over just two games of that stretch and looked like the elixir the Giants were so desperate for.

That didn’t come to pass over the rest of the season, as he flailed to a .213/.237/.347 line and -0.8 WAR by the end of the year. He’s still only 23, two years younger than upstart left fielder Heliot Ramos, and he could have rewritten himself back into the Giants’ plans thanks to a monster showing in the Venezuelan Winter League.

He won Rookie of the Year honors there thanks to a .300 average with an impressive 10 home runs and 41 RBI in his 55 games there. With the fourth outfielder spot behind Ramos, Jung-Hoo Lee, and Mike Yastrzemski still up for grabs, a spring showing that mirrors his performance in Venezuela could guarantee Matos breaks camp with the team.

Jerar Encarnación

Encarnación is out of minor league options and was signed by the Giants out of the Mexican League last May, so he might have been more hard-pressed to win a bench role out of camp if the Giants weren’t so desperate for a power bat. In his limited major league run of 58 games, he sports a .221/.250/.389 line that was 25% below average per wRC+. He also has limited defensive versatility, as he can play a little right field and a little first base, though neither at a particularly high level. That wouldn’t necessarily be a problem for a team with a big hole at DH, but he’d need to see that on-base percentage climb quite a bit to be useful there.

Why he even merits mentioning here is because what he does well, he does really well. He had the fourth-highest average exit velocity of any batter who saw at least 400 pitches in 2024, trailing only Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Oneil Cruz. That’s some elite company that proves when he makes contact, it’s loud. He’ll need to cut down on his strikeouts and be more patient at the plate, but if he can make the adjustment, he’s a guy who the Giants would hate to see leave the organization and succeed somewhere else.

The Giants need plenty to go right in 2025, but if they can get solid years from these three X-factors that could put them in good shape to snag a postseason spot.