The irony of the SF Giants home-run differential in 2025

In today's game, the team that hits more home runs than they allow is usually a recipe for success. That remains true in baseball, but that did not quite play out for the SF Giants in 2025.

The irony of the SF Giants home-run differential in 2025

The Giants have hit 168 home runs this season and have allowed 139 home runs. They are in the middle of the pack at hitting home runs, but they have allowed the fewest home runs in baseball.

That last detail is not too surprising. After all, Oracle Park remains one of the more pitcher-friendly ballparks in baseball. According to Baseball Savant, Oracle Park has a Park Factor of 97, with 100 serving as the baseline number. Any number above 100 is a sign of a more hitter-friendly ballpark, and the opposite is true for any number below 100. T-Mobile Park in Seattle is the only ballpark with a lower Park Factor at 91.

The Giants play half their games in a ballpark that is tough for hitting home runs, and great at suppressing home runs. They are usually near the bottom in home runs allowed in most seasons.

The differential between home runs hit and allowed is 29. That is the sixth-best differential in baseball, but what does it even mean? In these scenarios where it is often difficult to interpret the results on their own, I like to look at the number in the conext of win-loss record.

For example, the Colorado Rockies are the worst team in baseball with a 43-116 record. They also have the worst home-run differential by far in baseball with -90. They have allowed 90 more home runs than they have hit.

On the other hand, the five teams in front of the Giants in home-run differential are the New York Yankees (+96), New York Mets (+74), Los Angeles Dodgers (+65), Seattle Mariners (+50), and Philadelphia Phillies (+37).

What do these over five teams have in common? Many of them will play in the playoffs this season. The Dodgers, Mariners, and Phillies lead their respective divisions, whereas the Yankees have clinched a playoff spot. The Mets have a one-game lead over the Cincinnati Reds for the third Wild Card spot.

Generally speaking, if a team is looking at a way to improve their win-loss record, this is one area to purchase real estate. There are 12 teams with a positive home-run differential. In the final weekend of the year, nine of them are competing for a playoff spot.

The Giants, along with the Los Angeles Angels and Texas Rangers, are the three exceptions. At 78-81, the Giants clung to playoff hopes until they were officially eliminated earlier this week. They did playoff meaningful games until the final week of the season, but fell short of expectations.

They still have a chance to finish with a .500 record, and that might be an important number for this roster and the coaching staff. Bob Melvin's hold on his role is tenuous, but finishing with a .500 record could help his case.

While the Giants will look at ways to upgrade the roster in the offeason, they did well in a category that usually leads to a lot of wins. Usually being the operative word here. That was not the case for the Giants this season, and they will need to figure out why.

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