SF Giants have a clear change to make at first base after new defensive statistic

Measuring offense with statistics has always been easier than measuring defense – it’s that way in baseball, and it’s that way in every sport, really. If a player gets a base hit in three out of ten at-bats, you know he has a .300 batting average. Simple, easy. If two of those hits were doubles, then his slugging percentage is .500 – five total bases in ten AB’s. You’re nodding along so far.

Then there are the stats that are a bit harder to explain, and most of those have to do with defensive work. Some of these stats go against the eye test – did you know the Giants are 10th in MLB in team-wide defensive runs saved (DRS), at +30? Neither did I. Fifty years ago, they just noticed there were five times the shortstop should have caught the ball and he didn’t, so they gave him five errors. Then the nerds took over, and now nearly every aspect of play on the field is quantified.

One particular thing you might have always been curious about is, how valuable is it when you have a first baseman who can pick a low throw? When the Belt Wars were still raging, our resident Giraffe was always a well-regarded defender who could handle errant throws. That ability makes pitchers happy, but it also makes the rest of the infield look better, too. Baseball Savant has a fun way of measuring this value – first base receiving.

How first base receiving outs above average (OAA) are measured is complicated, but what it measures isn’t. According to Baseball Savant, “each throw from 2B/SS/3B is given an out probability based on inputs including throw location (high/low, wide/on-target, bounce/in-air), runner speed on play, and runner location from first base at the point the 1B catches the ball. Only throws within an 8-foot perimeter of the 1B bag are considered in the model.” A more detailed explanation can be found here.

In receiving OAA, Alec Burleson leads all MLB first basemen with +7, which may seem surprising from someone who is only in the 12th percentile in sprint speed. This metric isn’t the same as analyzing a center fielder’s range, though. Good footwork, hand-eye coordination, soft hands and an ability to stretch out while keeping a toe on the bag are all that matters here.

How Giants players stack up with the rest of the league

According to Statcast, there are 73 players who have had at least 25 fielded throw opportunities at first base this year. Burleson ranks first, and the highest-ranking Giant on the list is Bryce Eldridge, whose +1 receiving OAA ranks him tied with nine other players for 14th out of 73. That’s a good sign that the 6’7” slugger is getting comfortable at first base, where he doesn’t have a whole lot of professional experience – remember he was drafted as a two-way player and played a little right field before settling at the cold corner.

After Eldridge, Giants’ first base work gets a little less promising. Casey Schmitt is next, tying for 50th on the list with -1. Schmitt was asked to play five different positions plus DH this season, so not mastering the quirks of first base can’t really be held against him. With Eldridge and Devers on the team, there’s really no good reason Schmitt should get regular reps at first base next year either.

Lastly is the only other qualifying Giant, Rafael Devers. Of the 73 players with at least 25 fielded throw opportunities, Devers ranks second-to-last at 72nd out of 73, with -5 OAA. Only Bryce Harper ranked worse with -8, and he’s since moved back to the outfield after the Phillies acquired our own Luis Arraez.

That low of placement is a little shocking for Devers, even though it was always clear he would never be a Gold Glove candidate or anything close to it. Devers is famous for saying “I play third” in his time with the Red Sox, in case you forgot that first base is still a relatively new position for him. Also on the plus side, Devers makes the routine plays at a reasonable rate – his average expected out rate of 94.2% is middle-of-the-pack at 45th out of those 73. Eldridge edges him out by a few ticks in that metric too, though, at 94.6%.

If Devers can keep swinging the bat like he has the past two months or so, then all will likely be forgiven. Even infield guru Ron Washington hasn’t sprinkled enough magic on him to turn him into even an average first baseman, though, and you can’t always teach good instincts and reactions. Though Devers has often said he prefers playing in the field to being a strict DH, the numbers do point to Eldridge being a better long-term option at first, which would also be in the best interest of his development. Devers hasn't been playing much first base as of late due to a minor ailment.

It doesn’t hurt to have a big target like Eldridge there either, which Brandon Crawford and Pablo Sandoval probably would have said about chucking baseballs towards Brandon Belt too. We’ll have to wait and see how the first base timeshare between Eldridge and Devers pans out next season, but for now, it’s nice to know how first basemen stack up against each other when it comes to stretching out for a throw in the dirt.

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