SF Giants are running out of time to prove their season still matters

The SF Giants have developed the habit of making their devoted supporters feel good about a series despite not winning it— and more often than not, losing it. The latest example came Sunday afternoon, when Logan Webb delivered an eight-inning, 106-pitch, no-earned-run performance in the Giants' 5-1 series-finale win over the Chicago Cubs.

The 29-year-old ace has now gone eight innings in back-to-back games for the first time in his eight-season career and has looked a lot more like himself over his last four starts. Since coming off his first stint on the injured list dating back to July 2021, Webb has posted a 0.66 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in 27 1/3 innings of action.

For the second time in as many series, a gem performance from one of their marquee players not only avoided an embarrassing sweep but also injected some hope into a desperate fan base. But the broader picture of their season has remained unchanged.

Series-salvaging wins are keeping the Giants from sinking completely

The Giants have won just one of their last six series, but somehow the sentiment around this mediocre 29-43 team isn't as bleak as it probably should be.

A 19-run explosion in the series finale against the Rockies at Coors Field overshadowed two awful first games. Then they did it again in Milwaukee a few days later by splitting the series after being embarrassed to open the series. And then came the game against the Nationals, in which Bryce Eldridge single-handedly salvaged the series against one of the league's weaker pitching staffs with what felt like an era-shifting walk-off grand slam.

But at the end of the day, despite all those feel-good wins, the Giants are still 29-43, stuck 16 games behind the division-leading Los Angeles Dodgers and nine games behind the last National League Wild Card spot currently held by another divisional rival: the San Diego Padres.

Seven teams currently rank between the Giants and the last National League Wild Card spot, and saying it's not deserved would be a lie. As of June 14, San Francisco owns the third-worst run differential in the National League at -56 — trailing only the Rockies and Mets — and their Pythagorean record (expected record) is at 30-42, meaning they haven't played better than their record indicates.

They're right where they belong: second-to-last in the National League standings. And they might not climb very high if they don't start stringing together wins.

This team needs a streak, not a spark

The bats have gotten hot throughout the season, though mostly at different times. Even in March/April — when the Giants ranked last in basically every offensive category — Casey Schmitt, Heliot Ramos, and even Daniel Susac provided the team with some offensive sparks that prevented them from hitting absolute rock bottom.

Lately, it's been Matt Chapman, Bryce Eldridge, Jung Hoo Lee, and Luis Arraez. Chapman entered June with just one home run and 19 RBIs in 245 plate appearances and a lackluster .633 OPS. In his 13 games in June so far, the one-time All-Star has gone 17-for-41 (.415) with six long shots, 20 RBIs, and nine walks while posting a 1.402 OPS. He recorded two of his 15 career multi-homer games during that stretch, and his eight-RBI game at Wrigley Field on June 5 tied the Giants’ San Francisco-era single-game RBI record, joining a group that includes Willie Mays, Orlando Cepeda, Brandon Crawford, Joc Pederson, and Wilmer Flores.

Then there's Eldridge. With his one-hit, one-walk performance against the Cubs on Sunday, he extended his on-base streak to 20 games, becoming just the sixth Giant since 1901 to reach base in 20 straight games at age 21 or younger, joining Fred Merkle in 1910, Ross Youngs in 1918, Travis Jackson in 1924, Mel Ott (four times), and Willie McCovey in 1959. During his streak, the 6-foot-7 slugger has hit safely in 17 of those 20 games, posted a 1.206 OPS, and walked 13 times against just 13 strikeouts.

Finally, two of the main reasons why the Giants rank second in the league in batting average are Jung Hoo Lee and Luis Arraez, who both recently snapped impressive hitting streaks. Lee had collected a hit in 18 consecutive games — the longest streak by a Giant since Angel Pagan in 2016 — before failing to do so in the series opener against the Cubs, while Luis Arraez snapped a 13-game hitting streak of his own by going 0-for-4 on Sunday. They both rank in the top six in batting average, with Lee's .331 mark trailing only Otto Lopez, while Arraez's .319 mark is good enough for sixth best in the majors.

If reaching that top-six mark in the standings as a team — meaning a spot in the playoffs as the last Wild Card team — is an actual goal and not just a pipe dream, the wins need to start coming in bunches. Only three teams in the majors haven't managed to put together four straight wins. Can you guess which teams made the list? Through 72 games, the Giants' longest winning streak of the season still sits at three games, and they've done it four times. In case you're wondering, the other two teams are the Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles.

Since MLB added a third Wild Card spot in each league back in 2022, teams have clinched playoff berths by winning between 83 and 87 games. Given their current record (29-43), the Giants would need to go something like 57-33 (.633 winning percentage) the rest of the way to have a shot. That's a 103-win pace.

Even the most optimistic Giants fan should start coming to grips with the fact that his favorite team might be left out of the postseason for the fifth consecutive year. According to FanGraphs, the Giants have a 2.6% chance of playing baseball in October, the second-lowest odds in the National League.

With 90 games left on the schedule, according to Tankathon, the Giants have the 18th-hardest remaining schedule, with a .496 opponents' winning percentage. If that optimistic Giants fan still has faith, he could look at the top of those standings and notice that the four teams with the hardest remaining schedules — the Reds, Mets, Padres, and Cubs — are direct rivals for that coveted last Wild Card spot. Maybe I'm that fan, and I'm just grasping at straws.

There are actually seven teams that could be labeled as "direct rivals in the Wild Card race" — the Cincinnati Reds, Arizona Diamondbacks, Pittsburgh Pirates, New York Mets, St. Louis Cardinals, San Diego Padres, and Miami Marlins — and the Giants still have to face each of those teams at least once this season. From August 24 to September 16, they'll play seven straight series and 22 consecutive games against teams listed as Wild Card rivals. That stretch will only matter if they can stay afloat until then. And it starts in Atlanta on Monday. Against the best team in baseball.

As mentioned above, the Giants have made a pattern out of salvaging series with one encouraging, hope-sparking win. In order to sustain a 103-win pace over the next three months of baseball, winning series must become a habit, not a luxury.

Webb gave this group some momentum with his great outing on Sunday. Can they carry it over to Atlanta, where they'll take on a couple of familiar faces in Mike Yastrzemski and Dominic Smith, along with the team with the highest winning percentage in baseball? I wish the answer were obvious. But it's not, and the clock is ticking.

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