Ranking SF Giants' most likely free agent targets based on Buster Posey's history

After Buster Posey became the president of baseball operations for the SF Giants, he swung for the fences by signing shortstop Willy Adames to the largest deal in franchise history. When that is an executive's first big move out of the gates, one could be forgiven for thinking that Posey was going to be extremely aggressive going forward to try to turn the Giants back into a winner.

Outside of the blockbuster trade for Rafael Devers in June of 2025, most of Posey's moves have been fairly modest and conservative. Those aren't necessarily bad things, but after the team went 65-97 in 2026 it is not clear exactly hoe aggressive the Giants will be this offseason.

We know they are going to target pitching, but Posey said that last year and proceeded to sign Adrian Houser and Tyler Mahle to fill out the rotation while signing a bunch of injured relievers to fill out the bullpen.

The results speak for themselves so expect the Giants to be more aggressive than last offseason, but don't expect them to break the bank. Keep in mind that Greg Johnson is still around probably telling Buster to not spend too much on a starter although he probably won't do it as publicly as last offseason.

Let's rank some free agents into tiers to try and get a feel for what Posey will do. In an ode to Goldilocks, we'll start with free agents who will be too pricey, then go to free agents who might cause an uproar from the fanbase, and conclude with some who feel "just right."

Ranking free agents based on Buster Posey's history as an executive

"Too hot": Tarik Skubal, Randy Arozarena, Freddy Peralta, Michael King, Sonny Gray, Jazz Chisholm Jr., David Bednar, Adrian Morejon

Basically, any guys who are consistently listed in the top ten of "Top X MLB Free Agents" lists probably won't be signed by the Giants. I have a hard time seeing the rest of the ownership group, of which Posey is a part, approving drastic increases to payroll when the results were as bad as they were in 2026.

Plus, some of these guys were given qualifying offers which could mean the Giants would have to forfeit a draft pick or international bonus pool money if they signed them, although that may not be the case under a new CBA.

Still, I just do not see the Giants messing with this upper echelon of free agents this offseason so expect them to steer clear.

"Too cold": Walker Buehler, Chris Bassitt, Patrick Corbin, Kiké Hernandez, Austin Slater, Robert Stephenson, Jordan Romano

These are some examples of what the Giants will probably try to avoid. They won't go after washed up starters like Buehler or Bassitt on a one-year deal hoping they can squeeze one more decent year out of them. Also expect them to avoid too many of the injured reliever model like Robert Stephenson.

I actually wouldn't be wholly opposed to them signing a guy like Stephenson, a Bay Area native, to a minor league deal even though he's had so many injuries the last few years, but if moves like that are the extent of their bullpen reconstruction then there will be a lot of angry fans.

The same goes for a right-handed platoon bat for the outfield. This is not an absolute necessity especially since Victor Bericoto has shown promise, but signing a guy like Slater or Hernandez just wouldn't be enough to address that area.

"Just right": Kevin Gausman, Shota Imanaga, Clay Holmes, David Peterson, Kris Bubic, Casey Mize, JoJo Romero, Kenley Jansen, Raisel Iglesias, Steven Okert, Randal Grichuk, Taylor Ward

These guys all seem to fall right in the middle. These starters could all be had on fairly reasonable two or three-year deals, the relievers and closers can be had for one or two years, and the outfielders could be had on one-year deals.

They wouldn't be overextending themselves in any way and the risk seems fairly commensurate with the reward which is pretty much what you want in free agency since it is such a roll of the dice.

I predicted what I think the Giants will do in free agency this offseason and they all came from the "just right" tier so I wouldn't expect Posey to be as modest as he was on the pitching side last offseason nor would I expect an Adames or Devers-like splash. A sensible offseason headlined by a feel-good reunion with Gausman may be enough to keep fans happy and give at least a little hope that 2027 will be better.

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