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Top 3 SF Giants starting pitching targets by HR/9 ratio

By Jeff Young |
Wild Card Series - Philadelphia Phillies v St. Louis Cardinals - Game One
Wild Card Series - Philadelphia Phillies v St. Louis Cardinals - Game One / Stacy Revere/GettyImages
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The SF Giants might have a Carlos Rodón-sized hole to fill in the starting rotation if the hard-throwing hurler signs elsewhere. They may not be able to replace his production, but they might be able to replace certain qualities that the organization values like HR/9 ratio.

Top 3 SF Giants starting pitching targets by HR/9 ratio

No starting rotation was better at keeping the ball in the ball park than the Giants in 2022. They posted a 0.77 HR/9 ratio, which was the best in baseball by a comfortable margin. Of course, it helps that they had pitchers like Logan Webb and Alex Cobb who induced a fair amount of weak contact and a pitcher like Rodón who just struck everybody out.

The question is, does it even matter? Well, seven of the best 10 teams in terms of HR/9 ratio made it to the playoffs. Four of those teams including the Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves, Houston Astros, and the ST. Louis Cardinals finished in first place in their respective division.

The Astros (0.93 HR/9) and the Phillies (1.01 HR/9) were third and sixth, respectively, and reached the World Series. Of course, the former took home the World Series trophy.

So, there is value with rotations being able to keep the ball in the ball park. A good measure of a team is the net difference between home runs hit and home runs allowed. The Giants hit 183 home runs but only allowed 132 home runs. This comes out to a +51 home run differential.

That should have carried more meaning in the win-loss column but the Giants' roster had deficiencies in a lot of areas, so despite excelling in home run prevention, they only finished with an 81-81 record.

Nonetheless, the Giants will likely target starters who fit their archetype of someone who fills up the strike zone, keeps the ball on the ground, and prevents home runs at an above-average rate.

1. José Quintana - 0.43 HR/9

I feel like if anyone takes a Sporcle quiz of the 2021 Giants, not everyone will remember that José Quintana was on the roster for a brief period of time. He pitched a total of 9.2 frames before being designated for assignment near the end of the year.

The Giants needed starting pitching depth and the veteran starter checked that box. Quintana had been on the decline for a couple of seasons, but the Giants just needed someone who could soak up some innings. He posted a serviceable 4.66 ERA but control was an issue as he allowed six walks in a Giants uniform.

He signed a one-year, $2 million pact with the Pittsburgh Pirates last winter but far exceeded the expectations of that deal. The 33-year-old posted a 2.93 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 7.4 K/9, and a 2.91 SO/W ratio in 32 starts split between the Pirates and the Cardinals.

Quintana became an attractive trade piece at the deadline and was shipped to the Cardinals in exchange for Malcom Nunez and Johan Oviedo. He excelled during his brief time with St. Louis, posting a 2.01 ERA in 12 starts.

Quintana led baseball with a 0.43 HR/9 ratio among starting pitchers who threw at least 100 innings in 2022. The 11-year veteran is in a good position this winter as he looks to cash in on a solid season.

Teams will be weary of the fact that this was his best season by far since 2016, so there is a ceiling to what he can expect to receive. That said, his ability to prevent home runs has been a trait he has demonstrated throughout his career and is a quality that makes sense for the Giants.

Texas Rangers v Houston Astros
Texas Rangers v Houston Astros / Carmen Mandato/GettyImages

Top 3 SF Giants starting pitching targets by HR/9 ratio

2. Martín Pérez - 0.50 HR/9

Martín Pérez is in a similar position as José Quintana in that both have been pretty solid performaners throughout their respective careers, but both had career years in 2022. However, there is a pretty big difference between how each player will be viewed in free agency this winter.

The Texas Rangers issued a $19.65 million qualifying offer to Pérez, whereas Quintana is free from that designation. This means that if Pérez rejects the qualifying offer and signs elsewhere, then the team that signed him will lose a draft pick.

This probably does not carry a ton of meaning for players like Aaron Judge as teams will happily sacrifice a draft pick if it means that they can land the power-hitting outfielder. However, it might mean more for a player like Pérez, who will not have the same type of market as Judge.

It is possible that the veteran starter accepts the qualifying offer and I think that is what Texas hopes he does. The 31-year-old pitcher was superb in 2022, recording a 2.89 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 7.7 K/9, and a 2.45 SO/W ratio in 32 starts while earning an AL All-Star nod.

This includes a 0.50 HR/9 ratio, which was the fourth-best mark among starting pitchers with a minimum of 100 innings pitched. Logan Webb (0.51 HR/9) and Alex Cobb (0.54 HR/9) finished fifth and sixth, respectively.

Pérez has tallied a 4.43 ERA in 11 seasons, so it is fair to wonder if some teams might question whether his 2022 season was an outlier. It likely was but that is not going to stop his agents from pushing for a multi-year deal if he does not accept the qualifying offer.

The veteran starter fits the Giants in terms of home run prevention but Pérez has recorded a 1.1 HR/9 ratio since the start of 2018. That is not necessarily a bad rate, but it is probably closer to who Pérez is than his outstanding 0.5 HR/9 rate in 2022.

San Francisco Giants v Chicago Cubs
San Francisco Giants v Chicago Cubs / Michael Reaves/GettyImages

Top 3 SF Giants starting pitching targets by HR/9 ratio

3. Carlos Rodón - 0.61 HR/9

It could just be a coincidence but the top three free-agent targets in terms of HR/9 are left-handed pitchers. The Giants are very familiar with the third option and I would argue that the best will to fill the Carlos Rodón -sized void in the rotation is by purchasing a brand new subscription of Carlos Rodón.

The Giants will carry some leverage with the hard-throwing lefty after issuing a $19.65 million qualifying offer on Thursday. If Rodón signs elsewhere, then the Giants will receive a compensatory pick.

Draft pick compensation can hurt the market for some players as teams are typically reluctant to lose a draft pick. However, that is not going to be the case for the eight-year veteran as his value over the course of his next contract will likely exceed that of a draft pick.

It would be great if the Giants re-signed Rodón but I have this feeling in the pit of my stomach that they may look for the next Rodón-like contract. After all, the Giants freely let Kevin Gausman walk last offseason without making a legitimate offer.

Plus, it bears mentioning that new Giants general manager Pete Putila comes from a Houston Astros organization that appears adverse to long-term contracts for starting pitchers. It feels like the writing is on the wall.

However, the Giants will not find a free-agent pitcher who performed better than the southpaw in 2022. Rodón posted a 2.88 ERA, 2.25 FIP, 1.02 WHIP, 12.0 K/9, and a 5.46 SO/W ratio in 31 starts. This includes a 0.61 HR/9 ratio, which ranked as the 11th-best rate among starters with over 100 innings pitched.

Rodón made the NL All-Star team in 2022 and will likely receive some Cy Young votes when ballots are published later this month.

On a different note, the 29-year-old pitcher had an edge on the mound and the Giants need more of that fire. Whatever teams ends up with Rodón will be happy that they will get a starter with several prime years ahead. I just hope that the team that ends up with the lefty is San Francisco.

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