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Top 3 SF Giants starting pitching targets by ground ball rate

By Jeff Young |
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The SF Giants might have a huge void in the rotation to fill if Carlos Rodón departs via free agency. They would be challenged in finding that caliber of pitcher, but they are not just looking at good pitchers. They are looking at pitchers who excel in certain areas such as ground ball rate.

Top 3 SF Giants starting pitching targets by ground ball rate

The Giants cornered the market on ground ball rate this past season. Alex Cobb (61.5 percent) and Alex Wood (48.2 percent) were free agents who they signed last winter and both finished in the top 20 in ground ball rate among starting pitchers with a minimum of 100 innings pitched.

It bears mentioning that Cobb had the second-highest mark in baseball, behind only Houston Astros ace Framber Valdez (66.5 percent). Cobb also edged out teammate Logan Webb, who induced a ground ball in 56.7 percent of batted ball events.

As a team, the Giants' pitching staff led baseball with a 47.7 percent ground ball rate but why does it even matter? The reason is that ground balls result in outs at a higher rate and are less likely to result in extra-base hits. Of course, ground balls cannot leave the park, so typically pitchers with high ground ball rates tend to have low home run rates.

A high ground ball rate does not have the same correlation to win-loss record that a good SO/W ratio suggests, but it is something that the Giants believe in. If they have to replace Carlos Rodón, ground ball rate will be a quality that they target in free agency.

1. Martín Pérez - 51.4 percent ground ball rate

The Texas Rangers are interested in Rodón after luring longtime Giants manager Bruce Bochy out of retirement. The Giants and Rangers could make a swap of sorts.

Left-handed hurler Martín Pérez is coming off of career year and will be looking to cash in. He registered a 2.89 ERA, 3.27 FIP, 1.25 WHIP, 7.7 K/9, and a 2.45 SO/W ratio in 32 starts for the Rangers.

This includes a 51.4 percent ground ball rate, which ranked as the 11th-best rate among starters with a minimum of 100 innings pitched. Not surprisingly, the 31-year-old had a very strong home run at 0.5 HR/9.

Pérez has never had a season like this in 11 years in the majors. This will make some teams weary as they will want someone with a more predictable track record. The veteran pitcher will look to cash in, but there is a ceiling on what he can expect to see.

It would not be crazy to see him receive a three-year deal, but I think teams will push more for two seasons with an average annual value of $12 million. This is just a guess, but it makes sense given his age and how he performed this past season.

It would be risky for the Giants to replace Rodón with Pérez, but Pérez does excel in a quality that they target.

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Top 3 SF Giants starting pitching targets by ground ball rate

2. Chris Bassitt - 48.8 percent ground ball rate

In a weird way, there is more than one Giants connection with veteran starter Chris Bassitt. The most obvious connection is that Farhan Zaid and Bassitt were with the Oakland A's around the same time. Their paths did not officially cross as Bassitt was traded to the A's shortly after Zaidi became the general manager for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The second connection is that the 34-year-old was traded from the Chicago White Sox along with middle infielder Marcus Semien to the A's in a move that sent Jeff Samardzija to Chicago. Samardzija pitched one season with the White Sox before inking a five-year pact with the Giants.

Now that we have taken that trip down memory lane, Bassitt fits the Giants in more ways than one. The righty has quietly been one of the better starters in baseball since 2018, posting a 3.29 ERA in 107 games in that time.

The 2022 campaign was yet another strong season for the eight-year veteran. Bassitt recorded a 3.42 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 1.14 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, and a 3.41 SO/W ratio in 30 starts for the New York Mets. This includes a 48.8 percent ground ball rate, which ranks as the 17th-best mark in baseball among starters with a minimum of 100 innings pitched.

This could prove to be Bassitt's lone season in New York as the Mets will focus on bringing back a number of key free agents like Brandon Nimmo and Jacob deGrom.

Bassitt might not only excel in a quality that the Giants covet but he could fit their risk tolerance as well. The former 16th-round pick will be entering his age-34 season in 2023, meaning that he likely will not receive a deal beyond three or four years at a relatively reasonable rate. Perhaps, Nathan Eovaldi's four-year, $68 million pact that he signed with the Boston Red Sox after the 2018 season would be a good comparison.

The front office has not yet proven that it is willing to invest beyond three years in free agency, so Bassitt could be a better fit than Carlos Rodón in that sense.

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Top 3 SF Giants starting pitching targets by ground ball rate

3. Nathan Eovadli - 47.0 percent ground ball rate

There are a lot of good options in free agency this winter including Chris Bassitt, Ross Stripling, Jameson Taillon, and Carlos Rodón. However, it is hard to ignore that Nathan Eovaldi still flashes a mid-90's fastball and does a lot of what the Giants like in a pitcher.

Eovaldi attacks the strike zone while recording a high number of strikeouts. However, he gets a fair number of ground balls as well. The Giants archetype for a pitcher is one who tallies a lot of strikeouts and ground balls while limiting walks. Eovaldi is that pitcher.

The 11-year veteran finished off another solid season with the Boston Red Sox. He signed a four-year, $68 million pact with the Red Sox after the 2018 season and he lived up to the expectations of that contract.

The right-handed starter produced a 3.87 ERA, 4.30 FIP, 1.23 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, and a 5.15 SO/W ratio in 20 starts for Boston. This included a 47.0 percent ground ball rate. Oddly enough, Eovaldi had the second-highest home run rate in baseball at 1.73 HR/9.

Despite getting so many ground outs, the righty evidently left pitches in the the middle of the strike zone at too high of a frequency. The spike in home runs is trend that spans multiple seasons, so teams will be concerned. However, would a move to the pitcher-friendly confines of Oracle Park help with that? It is certainly possible.

Similar to Chris Bassitt, Eovaldi's age might be a factor that appeals to the Giants. The veteran will be entering his age-33 season in 2023, so he will not be in the market for a five-year deal like Carlos Rodón. Bassitt and Eovaldi both have a stable track record, so they will have plenty of interest in free agency.

On paper, Eovaldi is a fit for the Giants. However, the high home run rate is enough to make any team think twice. He might be a good fit but he would not come close to replacing the value of Rodón. That might be tough to ask any pitcher to do, but the Giants will need to get creative if the lefty leaves via free agency.

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