SF Giants ignoring decline of former 3rd baseman with Matt Chapman extension

The SF Giants signed their third baseman Matt Chapman to a 6-year contract extension. While this is probably the right move, Chapman at this stage of his career is eerily similar to former Giants third baseman Evan Longoria.

When the Giants traded for Evan Longoria ahead of the 2018 season, he had a pretty sterling track record. He was coming off his age 31 season where he played in 156 games, hitting .261/.313/.424 with 20 home runs and 69 RBI. He also won his third Gold Glove in 2017. From 2014-2017 he missed just 10 games. He seemed like a sure bet.

Is Matt Chapman going to turn out like Evan Longoria?

Then, he joined the Giants in 2018 for his age 32 season and never played in more than 129 games in a full season with the Giants. When he was on the field he was solid, but not close to his prime with the Tampa Bay Rays. And he just was not reliable by the end of his time with the Giants. He only played 81 games in 2021 and 89 games in 2022.

Now let's take a look at Chapman. He does not have the same offensive pedigree as Longoria but has been a superior defender in his career as a Platinum Glove winner. He has also been very reliable. His last 3 seasons by games played were 151, 155, 140. This year he has already played in 137 games and is on pace to be well over 150.

However, 2025 will be Chapman's age 32 season. That is the age Longoria was when his decline began. Of course, Longoria and Chapman are different players and athletes. Perhaps Chapman's body is better suited to manage the wear and tear that comes with age, but there are other cautionary tales about players when they turn 32.

Hunter Pence is another example of this. He was considered an absolute ironman and had played in at least 154 games or more from 2008-2014, including all 162 games in 2013 and 2014. Then from 2015 onward (his age 32 season was 2015), the most games he played in a full season was 134 in 2017 and the next closest was 106 in 2016.

It is no secret that athletes are more prone to injury as they age. But the fact that the Giants have committed $151 million to a guy as he is reaching the point in his career where typically reliable players become much less reliable is a little bit scary.

This is not to suggest that the Giants were unwise to do this. Chapman is a brilliant player who makes the team better which means taking this risk is necessary. They need solid veteran players like him who they can build around. But the examples of both Longoria and Pence should at least provide a little caution in assuming that Chapman is going to be as consistently durable as he has been this year for the Giants throughout the entirety of this contract.