Ranking the top SF Giants starting pitching targets by HR/9

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The SF Giants are in the market for a frontline starting pitcher this winter. One of the characteristics they target is the ability to keep the ball in the ballpark. The Giants pitching staff posted a 1.09 HR/9 rate in 2023, which was the second-lowest market in baseball. So, who are the best starting pitching targets in terms of home-run prevention?

Ranking the top SF Giants starting pitching targets by HR/9

The Cleveland Guardians led baseball with a 1.08 HR/9 rate last season. Not surprisingly, their 3.97 staff ERA was one of the better marks in baseball. The Giants were right behind them in that category with a 4.02 staff ERA.

Limiting home runs is one of the most effective ways to prevent runs. Typically, when a pitcher has a high home-run rate, it is a pretty big red flag that is tough to overlook regardless of how the rest of his peripherals might look.

One quality that the Giants covet in a pitcher is the ability to keep the ball on the ground. They comfortably led baseball with a 48.7 percent ground ball rate last year. A byproduct of this is that it usually results in fewer home runs allowed. It is really hard to hit a home run on the ground ball.

1. Sonny Gray - 0.39 HR/9

If the Giants could build a pitcher in a laboratory, they would probably create someone who pitched very similar to Sonny Gray. Or Logan Webb. Or Alex Cobb. Stylistically, they are not all that similar. Gray flashes a fastball-sweeper mix, whereas Webb relies on a changeup-sinker-slider. On the other hand, Cobb uses a sinker-splitter mix.

Regardless of the pitch mix, the results are generally similar in that all three pitchers attack the zone, limit walks, induce a healthy number of ground balls, and limit home runs. For Gray, the 2023 campaign was another excellent season in a career that has been filled with plenty of strong performances.

The 34-year-old pitcher tallied a 2.79 ERA, 2.83 FIP, 1.14 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, and a 3.33 SO/W ratio in 32 starts while finishing in second in the AL Cy Young voting this year. He had one of the highest ground ball rates (47.3 percent) among this year's free-agency class. The high groundball rate led to an exceptionally low 0.39 HR/9 rate. In fact, he led baseball in that category among pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched.

The right-handed hurler rejected a qualifying offer earlier this winter, so there is draft pick compensation tied to his name. Still, given his age, Gray likely will not net a contract of more than four years. The Giants' front office has been hesitant to hand out long-term contracts to pitchers in recent years, so four years might be beyond their comfort zone but it also has a chance to be a really good deal if he pitches anywhere close to how he has in recent seasons.

Colorado Rockies v San Diego Padres / Matt Thomas/San Diego Padres/GettyImages

Ranking the top SF Giants starting pitching targets by HR/9

2. Blake Snell - 0.75 HR/9

Speaking of long-term contracts beyond the front office's comfort zone, Blake Snell is well positioned to land a deal in excess of five years. The left-handed hurler just earned his second Cy Young award and become one of just seven pitchers to win a Cy Young award in both the AL and the NL.

Snell was fantastic in 2023 as he posted a 2.25 ERA, 3.44 FIP, 1.18 WHIP, 11.7 K/9, and a 2.36 SO/W ratio in 32 starts. This includes a 44.4 percent ground ball rate and a 0.75 HR/9 ratio. The lefty pitcher is not necessarily a ground-ball pitcher in the same way as someone like Alex Cobb, but he does induce a healthy number of ground balls.

Plus, it helps that Snell had one of the higher strikeout rates in baseball. Keeping the ball on the ground is an excellent way to limit home runs, but registering a high number of strikeouts is even better at achieving that end.

There are some wrinkles in his profile as well. Snell has an unusually high walk rate in his career and that continued this past season to the tune of a 5.0 BB/9 rate. Additionally, he is not known for pitching deep into games and has often been protected from the third turn in the lineup.

Similar to Sonny Gray, Snell rejected a qualifying offer, so there is draft pick compensation tied to his name. MLB Trade Rumors predicts that he could land a seven-year, $200 million pact this winter. For that type of contract length, it is generally easier to overlook the lost draft pick than a shorter-term deal.

The Giants have been connected to Snell to some degree this offseason. It is no surprise given their need for a topline starter and the fact that he is one of the very best options on the market. It does not hurt that Bob Melvin managed Snell over these past two seasons with the San Diego Padres.

World Series - Arizona Diamondbacks v Texas Rangers - Game Two / Sam Hodde/GettyImages

Ranking the top SF Giants starting pitching targets by HR/9

3. Jordan Montgomery - 0.86 HR/9

Early last season, I thought Jordan Montgomery would have been a sneaky, under-the-radar target for the Giants this offseason. The left-handed pitcher had put together a solid career prior to the 2023 season, but performed closer to a mid-rotation arm than an ace.

That narrative shifted in Montgomery's favor this season. The seven-year veteran was fantastic this in 2023, recording a 3.20 ERA, 3.56 FIP, 1.19 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, and a 3.46 SO/W ratio in 32 starts split between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Texas Rangers. This includes a 0.86 HR/9 ratio.

The veteran pitcher was even better in the playoffs, posting a 2.90 ERA in 31 innings while helping the Rangers win their first World Series title in franchise history. That type of performance will get a pitcher paid and Montgomery is expected to score a very nice payday in the neighborhood of six years and $150 million according to MLB Trade Rumors.

Since he was traded midseason, Montgomery was not eligible to receive a qualifying offer. This could only help his market as some teams like the Giants are reluctant to give up a draft pick when signing a player.

Editor's note: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (0.1 HR/9) allowed just two home runs across 164 NPB innings in 2023. The Giants have been in the mix, but he is expected to have a heavy market. On a different note, Marcos Stroman (0.59 HR/9) excels in home-run prevention and could be a target for the Giants, but they will need to weigh his off-the-field concerns as well.

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