Ranking the top 3 SF Giants starting pitching targets by ground ball rate

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The SF Giants are in the market for a frontline starter this winter. One characteristic that they target in a prospective pitcher is ground ball rate. The pitching staff comfortably led baseball in 2023 with a 48.7 percent ground ball rate. So, who are the best available starting pitching options in terms of that quality?

Ranking the top 3 SF Giants starting pitching targets by ground ball rate

Why is ground ball rate important? There are a few reasons why, but the simplest reason is that ground balls do not translate to home runs. Not surprisingly, Giants pitchers had the second-lowest home run rate (1.09 HR/9) in baseball, which was a tad behind the Cleveland Guardians for the lead at 1.08 HR/9.

Importantly, ground balls also do not often lead to extra-base hits. In 2023, hitters slashed .243/.243/.267 (35 wRC+) on ground balls with a .024 ISO. Typically, hitters get an extra-base hit on a ground ball by hooking it down the line or hitting it against the defense. It is not all that common of an occurrence.

If the Giants had a concept for what they want in a pitcher, it is someone who stays in the strike zone, limits walks, and keeps the ball on the ground. They like strikeout-heavy pitchers, but ground ball pitchers tend to be more affordable for them in free agency.

1. Nick Martinez - 53.8 percent ground ball rate

Nick Martinez is not necessarily a frontline starter, but he has a trait that the Giants like in a pitcher, which is that he induces a lot of ground balls. The 33-year-old pitcher quietly had a very nice two-year stretch with the San Diego Padres.

Martinez had a dual option heading into this offseason. The first part of that option was a two-year, $32 million team option that the Padres declined. This then turned into a one-year, $8 million player option that Martinez declined. San Diego is in the process of shedding costs and decided that they did not want to keep the right-handed hurler at a very reasonable rate of $16 million per season over the next two years.

It was no surprise to see Martinez decline his player option once that occurred. He can score a much larger payday in free agency. While he is not necessarily a frontline option, he was very solid with the Padres. In 2023, the six-year veteran tallied a 3.43 ERA, 3.92 FIP, 1.26 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, and a 2.65 SO/W ratio in 63 appearances.

Martinez had a 53.8 percent ground ball rate last year. And, he excelled at limiting home runs as he recorded a 0.98 HR/9 rate. He has experience working out of the rotation and the bullpen but served more as a multi-inning reliever last year. Plus, the Bob Melvin connection does not hurt as he was the Padres' manager with Martinez on the pitching staff over the past two seasons.

If the Giants miss out on the frontline starters, I would not be surprised to see them revisit the idea of adding Martinez. He will be looking for a contract that is much more in line with the front office's risk tolerance. It would also not be all that surprising if he was one of the better bargains in this year's free-agent class.

Division Series - Houston Astros v Minnesota Twins - Game Three / Brace Hemmelgarn/GettyImages

Ranking the top 3 SF Giants starting pitching targets by ground ball rate

2. Sonny Gray - 47.3 percent ground ball rate

Sonny Gray is probably my favorite starting-pitching option available this winter. In a lot of ways, he does what the Giants like in a pitcher and he will not command a deal in excess of four years given that he will be entering his age-34 season in 2024.

Chris Bassitt's three-year, $63 million contract with the Toronto Blue Jays last offseason is likely a reasonable template for Gray. Though, his agent may be looking to tack on at least one more year on that type of deal given that the veteran pitcher just finished second in the AL Cy Young voting in 2023.

The 11-year veteran was electric with the Minnesota Twins as he posted a 2.79 ERA, 2.83 FIP, 1.14 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, and a 3.33 SO/W in 32 starts. He has a pretty durable track record as he has made at least 25 appearances in four of the last five full seasons.

Gray induced a ground ball in 47.3 percent of batted ball events. He also had the lowest home run rate (0.39 HR/9 rate) in baseball among pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched.

Is he a frontline starter? He struggled during his time with the New York Yankees, but he has also tallied a 3.22 ERA over the past five years. There are only nine pitchers who have had a better ERA during that timespan with at least 500 innings pitched. He is very, very good.

The right-handed hurler rejected a qualifying offer earlier this season, so if the Giants were to sign him, they would lose a draft pick. That could very well be a non-starter for the Giants as they have not signed a player who has rejected a qualifying offer in nearly 10 years. There will likely be some connection between him and San Francisco given that Bob Melvin was Gray's manager during his time with the Oakland A's.

St. Louis Cardinals v Milwaukee Brewers / John Fisher/GettyImages

Ranking the top 3 SF Giants starting pitching targets by ground ball rate

3. Wade Miley - 46.3 percent ground ball rate

Wade Miley is not a frontline starter, but he has been a very solid mid-rotation option during his 13-year career. This might be the case that the Giants just do not view him as much of a target given that they have had plenty of opportunities to add him in the past.

Nevertheless, the veteran pitcher declined his portion of a $10 million mutual option for 2024, thereby becoming a free agent. He is looking for one more payday in his career, and can likely get a multi-year deal with an average annual value of $10 million.

With that being said, the left-handed pitcher has not been the most durable arm in recent seasons. It would be a case of quality over quantity with Miley.

He is coming off of a solid season with the Milwaukee Brewers where he registered a 3.14 ERA, 4.69 FIP, 1.13 WHIP, 5.9 K/9, and a 2.08 SO/W ratio in 23 starts. The strikeout rate has plummeted and he has less-than-stellar peripherals, but he continues to get the job done.

Miley tallied a 46.3 percent ground ball rate and a 1.20 HR/9 ratio in 2023. The home run rate was right around league average, so he allowed a higher home run rate than expected given his above-average ground ball rate.

Similar to Nick Martinez, if the Giants miss out on the frontline starters, they could do a lot worse than Miley. He might not be a top target but could be a nice bargain option depending on how the rest of their offseason goes.

Editor's note: Marcos Stroman (57.1 percent ground ball rate) was considered, but he has some off-the-field baggage that is more than just a little concerning. His performance on the field would be a fit for the Giants, but they would have to heavily consider other qualitative factors as well. Kyle Gibson (48.9 percent ground ball rate) was considered, but he is more of a back end starting pitcher.

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