Ranking the top 3 SF Giants starting pitching targets by SO/W ratio

Ranking the top 3 SF Giants starting pitching targets by SO/W ratio

2. Aaron Nola - 4.49 SO/W ratio

On the surface, Aaron Nola does not feel like a Giants target. He has been connected to teams like the Texas Rangers, St. Louis Cardinals, and the incumbent Philadelphia Phillies. That said, based on this stat, he is one of the top options available.

While Nola excelled in terms of SO/W rate, the 2023 campaign was an uncharacteristically down year for the veteran pitcher. He tallied a 4.46 ERA, 4.03 FIP, 1.15 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, and a 4.49 SO/W rate across 193.2 innings for the Phillies. His 1.5 HR/9 rate was much higher than his career mark of 1.1 HR/9. Nevertheless, he has a track record of success and durability, so these numbers are not expected to depress his market or projected contract all that much.

Despite the down numbers, Nola has typically been able to record a healthy number of strikeouts (10.0 K/9) while limiting walks (2.3 BB/9). He has a pitch mix that includes a low 90's fastball with a curveball, changeup, and sinker. The fastball velocity plays up due to above-average extension on his release point,

On the other hand, the curveball has always been tough pitch for opposing hitters. It not only gets swinging strikes within the zone, but hitters often chase out of the zone against it a lot as well.

The 30-year-old pitcher has made at least 32 starts in each of the last five full seasons. You just do not find that type of durability in today's game. However, prospective teams might also be weary of the fact that he has thrown over 1,400 innings in the majors. He is 29th among active pitchers in innings pitched while also being several years younger than every pitcher in front of him. This is a sign of a heavy workload on an annual basis, which is commendable but it could give teams cause for concern.

The Phillies issued Nola a qualifying offer, which he is expected to reject. This means that if the Giants do sign him, it would result in the loss of a draft pick. It has been nearly 10 years since the Giants have signed a player who rejected a qualifying offer.

Ranking the top 3 SF Giants starting pitching targets by SO/W ratio

3. Seth Lugo - 3.89 SO/W ratio

Seth Lugo has the feel of an underrated Giants target for several reasons. Perhaps, one of the most notable reasons is the Bob Melvin connection. Lugo worked primarily out of the bullpen in his first seven seasons with the New York Mets.

However, he pitched exclusively out of the starting rotation for Melvin and the San Diego Padres last year. The 33-year-old had his best season in the majors while doing so. Familiarity might be a factor, but he also does not have a track record that would command a deal like Aaron Nola, Jordan Montgomery, and Blake Snell are all expected to receive. There might be a bargain element to Lugo similar to when the Giants signed Alex Cobb two seasons ago.

Lugo tallied a 3.57 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 1.20 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, and a 3.89 SO/W ratio in 26 starts for the Padres in 2023. The ability to record a healthy number of strikeouts while limiting walks has been a characteristic of his career as evidenced by his 3.75 SO/W ratio across eight seasons.

Lugo has really just been an effective pitcher, posting a 3.50 ERA since debuting for the Mets in 2016. MLB Trade Rumors predicts that he will net a three-year, $42 million pact in free agency. Lugo just completed his age-33 season, so he is a bit on the older side for a pitcher. This along with his limited track record as a starter reinforces the idea that he could be a really nice bargain for a team. He is not necessarily a frontline starter but could be a very solid mid-rotation arm.

Honorable mention: Jordan Montgomery (3.46 SO/W ratio) and Sonny Gray (3.33 SO/W ratio) both seem like potential targets based on this stat as well.