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Ranking the 3 frontline starters the SF Giants should target on the trade market

By Jeff Young |
Wild Card Series - Texas Rangers v Tampa Bay Rays - Game One
Wild Card Series - Texas Rangers v Tampa Bay Rays - Game One / Megan Briggs/GettyImages
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The SF Giants have already been active on the starting pitching market in free agency. However, if they decide to pivot to the trade market, who makes the most sense?

Ranking the 3 frontline starters the SF Giants should target on the trade market

It is an interesting balance between targeting players in free agency compared to the trade market. In free agency, the only cost is typically financial. If a player had rejected a qualifying offer, then the team that signs him would lose a draft pick as well.

However, when you are signing a player in free agency, you are paying them for what they have done. In many cases, age regression has already begun when a player reaches free agency, but the track record is a tough factor to ignore. Nevertheless, if a team signs a high-profile player, that player and his contract is with the team for many years to come for better or worse.

The trade market is a bit different. Typically, the most appealing players are those with multiple years of team control remaining. Team control is a buzzword in baseball because it can mean that the team can retain a player at a below-market cost. For example, Tim Lincecum had a $650,000 salary in 2009 when he won his second Cy Young award.

Team control comes at a cost in terms of prospect capital. Teams will have usually have to give up considerable prospect capital for premium talent. So, the three names mentioned would require the Giants to be in an unusual position of trading away prospects.

1. Tampa Bay Rays starter Tyler Glasnow

The Tampa Bay Rays might be more motivated to move Tyler Glasnow than any of the other names mentioned, so a trade partner might have some leverage. First, Glasnow is slated to earn $25 million in 2024, which is a hefty price for a small-market team like the Rays. That is a price a team like the Giants can stomach.

Plus, Glasnow will become a free agent after next season. If he has a year like he did in 2023, it is hard to imagine Tampa Bay re-signing him to an extension. They are a smart team and know this, so they typically trade a player before they reach free agency. The rest of baseball knows this as well. There is a very good chance that the right-handed pitcher is throwing for a different team in 2025.

Glasnow is coming off of his best season in years, especially after missing parts of this year and last year due to Tommy John surgery. The Giants have a low tolerance for risk in just about every area of roster building except for injury risk.

The 30-year-old was excellent in 2023 as he posted a 3.53 ERA, 2.91 FIP, 1.08 WHIP, 12.2 K/9, and a 4.38 SO/W ratio. This includes a solid 51.2 percent groundball rate. The Giants like pitchers who throw effectively in the strike zone and keep the ball on the ground. Glasnow excels at both, making him an obvious fit for the rotation.

Wild Card Series - Arizona Diamondbacks v Milwaukee Brewers - Game One
Wild Card Series - Arizona Diamondbacks v Milwaukee Brewers - Game One / Stacy Revere/GettyImages

Ranking the 3 frontline starters the SF Giants should target on the trade market

2. Milwaukee Brewers starter Corbin Burnes

Whether it is this winter or next offseason, the SF Giants will be connected to star pitcher Corbin Burnes. The 2021 Cy Young award winner is from California and attended Saint Mary's College before being selected in the fourth round of the 2016 draft.

Plus, Burnes is entering the final year of team control. Similar to the Tampa Bay Rays and Tyler Glasnow, the Brewers are inclined to trade players before they reach free agency. The options are either to try and get a prospect package for a player with team control remaining or wait until he walks in free agency, potentially only receiving a compensatory pick. Most small-market teams follow the first approach.

The Brewers appear to be open for business according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic with Burnes quickly becoming the top options available. If the Giants are going to add Burnes, it probably makes more sense for them to do so via a trade rather than free agency.

The 29-year-old pitcher is going to command a massive contract once he hits free agency after the 2024 season, which would likely be beyond the Giants' comfort zone.

The righty pitcher had another solid season in 2023, posting a 3.39 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 1.06 WHIP, 9.3 K/9, and a 3.03 SO/W ratio across 32 starts. Last season was the first time since 2019 that Burnes had an ERA above three, so he has been a model of consistency.

Chicago White Sox v Boston Red Sox
Chicago White Sox v Boston Red Sox / Winslow Townson/GettyImages

Ranking the 3 frontline starters the SF Giants should target on the trade market

3. Chicago White Sox starter Dylan Cease

Team control holds a lot of value to teams, which makes Dylan Cease one of the more valuable trade assets in baseball. The Chicago White Sox are coming off of a disastrous 2023 campaign in which they only won 61 games.

They cleaned house in the front office. Former infielder Chris Getz is the team's new general manager and he likely recognizes the need to go through a rebuild. One quick way to jumpstart a rebuild is to trade Cease, who has two years of team control remaining.

The righty pitcher is coming off of a subpar season in which he posted a 4.58 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 1.41 WHIP, 10.9 K/9, and a 2.71 SO/W ratio. The FIP suggests that he pitched better than his ERA would indicate, which is not too terribly surprising for a White Sox defense that was worth -18 Outs Above Average last year.

With that being said, the 27-year-old has tallied a 3.83 ERA in parts of five seasons, so has a more favorable track record than his ERA in 2023 would suggest.

Cease's control leaves a bit to be desired, which might not make him much of a fit for the Giants. The Giants do like pitchers who attack the strike zone and Cease does so, but he issues a high number of walks as evidenced by his 4.0 career BB/9.

The White Sox are going to be looking for a considerable return given that they would be trading away two peak seasons of Cease. This probably makes him even less likely of a candidate for the Giants, but if they burn all of their other options, Cease would upgrade the rotation.

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