One major complication in the SF Giants potentially trading for All-Star pitcher

The SF Giants have a need for starting pitching this offseason. They have already been loosely connected to three-time All-Star Sonny Gray, but it would come at a steep financial cost.

One major complication in the SF Giants potentially trading for All-Star pitcher

Two offseasons ago, Gray signed a three-year, $75 million contract to join the St. Louis Cardinals. This included a $30 million club option for 2027, with a $5 million buyout clause.

Gray's contract also includes a full no-trade clause. He resides in Tennessee, so pitching for St. Louis allows him to be close to home.

In the past, the three-time All-Star expressed little motivation to waive his no-trade clause. He is reportedly more willing to waive it this offseason, as the Cardinals are entering a transition phase.

If the 35-year-old pitcher is willing to waive it, San Francisco feels like a logical fit on paper. He had strong ties with outgoing manager Bob Melvin, so that might have him looking elsewhere.

There is a notable financial complication for any team looking to acquire Gray. His contract is heavily backloaded. He is due to make $35 million in 2026. If Gray is moved, his luxury tax hit is reset to capture the remaining guaranteed money over the remaining guaranteed years.

According to Cot's, his current cap hit is projected to be roughly $25 million with the Cardinals in 2026. If he is moved, then that cap hit is reset to a substantially high rate. The guaranteed money is $35 million due in 2026, and $5 million due as a buyout in 2027. For 2026, this is regardless of whether the club option is exercised.

Gray only has one guaranteed year remaining on his deal, so that is $40 million in guaranteed money spread over just one season, meaning that his cap hit in 2026 would be in the neighborhood of $40 million.

To facilitate a trade, the Cardinals will likely need to absorb a notable amount to bring that number down to a reasonable level. Perhaps, it might be in their best interest to hold onto him until next year's trade deadline. Teams usually have a spending cushion heading into the year, so that they can take on salary later if needed.

The veteran hurler would be a nice boost to the Giants' rotation. He pitched to a 4.28 ERA, 3.39 FIP, 1.24 WHIP, 10.0 K/0, and a 5.29 SO/W rate in 180.2 innings for the Cardinals. While Gray's ERA was on the higher side, his FIP suggests that he pitched better than that. Plus, he made 32 starts.

That value is not anything near $40 million, but it is solid production nonetheless. At the end of the day, it is essentially a one-year deal, and it comes off the books right away if the club option is declined. The Cardinals will look to move the 13-year veteran this year, but it could be a complicated trade. The no-trade clause adds a wrinkle to trade talks, but so does the structure of the contract.