One lever the SF Giants will not be using this offseason

According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (subscription required), the qualifying offer for 2026 is projected to be just over $22 million. Of course, this is a lever that the SF Giants will not be using this offseason.

One lever the SF Giants will not be using this offseason

Theoretically, the Giants could use the qualifying offer on any player who has not received it before. However, this typically applies to the top players on the market.

The qualifying offer is essentially a one-year deal. The value of it is determined by calculating the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players. Typically, the value of the qualifying offer sees a modest bump each year, as the value of those contracts increases.

This process takes place at the beginning of the offseason. Teams can issue a qualifying offer to pending free agents. This can be used as a lever to retain those soon-to-be free agents, and it can result in draft pick compensation if they sign elsewhere. Players have 10 days to accept or reject the qualifying offer. Most players reject it, as they can find a multi-year deal in free agency.

If a team signs a player who rejects a qualifying offer, they will be penalized for the signing. The penalty varies, but it is often the team's second-highest selection and $500,000 in international bonus pool money. This can become a roadblock for some players in free agency, especially if they are seeking a shorter-term deal.

The Giants can bypass this step altogether. If there were a prop bet on whether the Giants would issue a qualifying offer to a player this season, I would probably put all of my money on no. The Giants' group of free agents includes Justin Verlander, Wilmer Flores, and Dominic Smith.

Tom Murphy has a club option that will be declined. Some sites have Joey Lucchesi listed as a free agent, but that does not appear to be correct. He has just over five years of service time, which is below the six years needed to reach free agency.

Verlander is the only one from the group who might have been a candidate for the qualifying offer. If he received one, there is a good chance that he would accept it. However, Verlander was already issued a qualifying offer by the Houston Astros after the 2021 season, and that is a lever that can only be used once in a player's career.