MLB Pipeline’s draft expert pours cold water on latest SF Giants draft rumor

The SF Giants are enamored with UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky and hope that he slips to them at No. 4 in this year’s draft. Hope is the operative word, and Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline explains why this is highly unlikely.

I do not like speaking in absolutes but this is about as absolute as it gets. The Chicago White Sox are widely expected to select Cholowsky with the No. 1 pick of this year’s draft. 

That pick carries a slot value of $11.4 million. That number is substantially higher than the largest signing bonus in baseball history at $9.25 million. That mark is held by Chase Burns of the Cincinnati Reds and Charlie Condon of the Colorado Rockies, both of whom were picked in the 2024 draft.

It is not uncommon for players to sign underslot deals in the first round so teams cannot reallocate that money to later in the draft. More often than not, teams have an understanding of what it will take to sign a player before he is selected.

The SF Giants threw the hat into the Cholowsky sweepstakes

The Giants seemingly threw their hat into the Cholowsky sweepstakes with the trade of Patrick Bailey. They acquired pitching prospect Matt Wilkinson, who had a notable organizational debut this week. They also added the No. 29 pick, along with the $3,2 million slot value.

Interestingly, the Giants’ total bonus pool is now $17.3 million, slightly below Chicago's $17.6 million. I always like to mention that teams can exceed this amount by five percent while only paying a tax on the overage. That gives the Giants a maximum bonus pool of about $18.2 million.

The Giants have often flirted with that five-percent threshold, and it is a safe assumption that they will do so again this year. 

They like Roch Cholowsky. The Bailey trade gives them more spending flexibility. At the very least, they can float a record-breaking signing bonus to Cholowsky and hope that it takes the White Sox out of their comfort zone. 

Even if the Giants do that, Jim Callis applies rationality to the situation. He explains why Chowlosky is still unlikely to slip to the Giants at No. 4:

Even if San Francisco or another team would pay him more, he wouldn't turn down life-changing money to play his senior season at UCLA and re-enter the 2027 Draft with a lot less leverage. The only way Cholowsky would get to No. 4 would be if three teams passed on him, and I don't see any way that would happen.

To put it a different way. There is just not much for Cholowsky to gain by spurning an offer from the three teams that sit in front of the Giants in the draft. In fact, he may only stand to lose money by electing to not sign and re-enter the draft next year.

The Giants hope to land a foundational pick this year’s draft. It just may not be the player who is viewed as the top prospect in the draft. 

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