Kevin Gausman Cubs trade gives SF Giants perfect blueprint for Robbie Ray

Another major trade chip fell on Sunday evening, as the Toronto Blue Jays traded former SF Giants star pitcher Kevin Gausman to the Chicago Cubs in exchange for two prospects. The 35-year-old is in the final season of a five-year, $110 million deal he signed with Toronto after a resurgent two-season stint in San Francisco. He has largely walked a parallel path to Robbie Ray since 2021, and the Blue Jays' return in this deal is likely illustrative of the offers the Giants should expect when shopping the southpaw.

Gausman joined the Giants for the 2020 season, which was an up-and-down one for him, then signed another one-year deal for 2021 and truly blossomed. He was named to his first All-Star team and finished 6th in Cy Young voting as he and Logan Webb emerged as co-aces and led the team to a franchise-record 107 wins.

Despite Gausman's love for San Francisco and vocal desire to return to the Giants, Farhan Zaidi balked at the contract length needed to re-sign him and let him leave for Toronto in free agency. That decision has looked bad for a few years and looks even worse now, as Gausman thrived in his time with the Jays. He made at least 31 starts each of the past four years and is on pace to do so again, and enjoyed two top-10 Cy Young finishes and a trip to the World Series last fall. San Francisco, meanwhile, has failed to make the playoffs every year since his departure.

With this trade, Toronto is taking advantage of a disappointing season for the team to squeeze every last bit of surplus value out of Gausman's expiring contract. They reportedly received Ty Southisene and Brett Bateman, who are ranked by MLB Pipeline as the Cubs' 13th- and 21st-best prospects, back in the deal.

Kevin Gausman trade clears up the Robbie Ray market for Giants

As our own Jeff Young pointed out, the prospect return in this trade will likely be similar to what they Giants eventually get for Robbie Ray. While Ray's ERA is more than a run lower than Gausman's, his expected numbers are actually a bit higher and he projects to perform about the same or slightly worse the rest of the way. It was previously reported that the Giants should temper their expectations for a Ray trade, and the return for the first two starters dealt further supported this hypothesis.

Still, while they would love to get more for him, adding something similar to what the Blue Jays got – two prospects who slot in among the top 15-25 in their system – would undoubtedly be a successful haul for Ray, especially given his age and teams' doubts about his true talent (his performance declined in the second half last year after an All-Star nod, and he has a 4.36 FIP this year). His recent run of dominance – he has a 1.09 ERA and 3.04 FIP in his last eight starts – has certainly salvaged some value, but it won't be enough to blow the return for Gausman out of the water.

The only real difference is that while Toronto received two position players, the Giants are presumed to want mostly pitching in their deadline deals. I wrote last week about a few pitching prospects they may target, though two of the arms mentioned are ranked eighth and tenth in their respective systems, which may be a tad high in light of everything discussed above.

San Francisco's preference for pitching was clear in their first deadline trade, consummated minutes after the Gausman deal, in which they shipped Tyler Mahle to Atlanta for right-handed reliever Anthony Molina. Now with less than 24 hours until Monday's deadline, all eyes are on Buster Posey and the front office as we wait to see how much prospect capital they can pry away from desperate contenders.

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow