Home run simulator reveals top SF Giants prospect may get burned by Oracle Park

Top SF Giants prospect Bryce Eldridge has been on a tear with the Triple-A Sacramento River Cats. In 121 at bats in Sacramento, Eldridge is posting a slash line of .264/.328/.570. He has an .890 OPS in that time and 11 home runs.

The River Cats play in the Pacific Coast League which is known for being hitter-friendly. Meanwhile, Oracle Park is known for being one of the least hitter-friendly parks in MLB.

Top SF Giants prospect Bryce Eldridge might get burned by Oracle Park

Using a home run simulator that calculates distance, launch angle (deg), and exit velocity (EV) of the home runs, we can estimate which of Eldridges PCL home runs would have been gone at Oracle Park.

These simulations factor in the average 18 mph wind speed in Oracle, and westward wind from McCovey Cove, the most common direction. While it's impossible to know exactly where these balls would have went, we can gain a pretty good estimation. Obviously, we should take the simulations with a grain of salt, but they are still interesting to take a look at:

6/5 SAC @ SUG 397ft, 109.8 EV, 24 deg to right center field. No - this ball does not get out in Oracle, but may be a hit.

6/12 SAC VS TAC 388ft, 105.6 EV, 26 deg, to center field. No - this ball is most likely kept in the park by wind.

6/17 SAC @ SL N/A ft, 104.8 EV, 24 deg, to right center field. No - This ball does not get out, and is most likely caught.

7/22 SAC VS LV 425ft, 106.2 EV, 34 deg, to center field. No - this ball is likely not out.

7/23 SAC VS LV 406ft, 105.5 EV, 34 deg, to right field. No - this ball is short of the landing, and is most likely caught.

7/25 SAC VS LV N/A ft, 106 EV, 40 deg, to left field. Yes - this ball gets over the mural in left.

7/27 SAC vs LV 384ft, 105 EV, 32 deg, to right field. No - short of the landing at the warning track.

8/2 SAC @ ABQ 426ft, 107.2 EV, 24 deg, to center field. Yes - this gets out to dead center, and is most likely a home run.  

8/2 SAC @ ABQ 397ft, 99.2 EV, 28 deg, to center field. No - not a home run, but most likely a double at least.

8/3 SAC @ ABQ 408 ft, 106.5 EV, 29 deg, to left center field. Yes - this ball is never coming back.

8/5 SAC VS SUG 413ft, 106.2mph, 34 deg, to left center field. Yes - this ball is gone in Oracle.

Seven of his eleven homers would not have gone out at Oracle Park according to the simulator. This is not a huge shock as Oracle Park, with Triple's Alley and the wind off McCovey Cove, has always been tough on left-handed hitters not named Barry Bonds.

Eldridge is young so it's important to keep in mind he still has a lot of developing to do. But he is showing incredible power that will hopefully translate well to his future home in the Bay.

Posey has said the team will take their time with Eldridge's development. Don't expect to see him in the bigs any time soon, but do be excited for his arrival. As the 20-year-old prospect continues to prove he is the real deal, only time will tell how he fares in Oracle.

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