Grading the SF Giants signing of power-hitting shortstop Willy Adames

The physical has been completed and the ink has dried on Willy Adames' seven-year, $182 million deal with the SF Giants. What grade do the Giants deserve for making this deal?

Grading the SF Giants' signing of power-hitting shortstop Willy Adames

Adding a shortstop was one of the team's top priorities when the offseason began. Adames of the Milwaukee Brewers and Ha-Seong Kim of the San Diego Padres were the best options in free agency. The drop-off in production after those two options was pretty significant, so it behooved the Giants to add one of those two.

For a lot of reasons, Kim seemed like a strong option. He had ties to both manager Bob Melvin and center fielder Jung Hoo Lee. However, he recently had shoulder surgery and is expected to miss the first part of the season.

Kim is an excellent defender at shortstop and a good baserunner. On the other hand, Adames offers more offensive upside, having hit at least 20 home runs in each of the past four seasons. He also surpassed the 30-homer mark in 2022 and 2024. Do I even need to mention how long it has been since the Giants have had a player hit 30 home runs in a season? Kim and Adames offer value in different ways with the latter being the superior option.

Grade: B

What I liked about the deal

I should preface this by saying that a B is a really strong grade. When I was growing up, my parents were pretty strict about grades. The goal was always to get an A but a B was a good grade as well. This was true for most classes, but I hated chemistry, so we agreed to make an exception.

I liked that Buster Posey stated his desire to add a shortstop and ended up getting the top name on the market. He did so quietly and without the distraction of getting involved in the Juan Soto sweepstakes.

Posey said that it was a gut feeling to sit this one out. Of course, the Giants are one of the few big-market clubs in baseball, so it is open for debate as to whether they should even sit out the pursuit for a superstar free agent. That said, history has not been too kind to them in these pursuits.

The New York Yankees heavily pursued Soto and that is something that they needed to do. After all, they are the Yankees. However, they had interest in Blake Snell as well. The Soto pursuit likely distracted enough for the Los Angeles Dodgers to sign him to a five-year deal. There is a good chance that Snell wanted to stay on the West Coast anyway, but this could have been the Giants and Adames as well.

I also liked the timing of the deal. The Giants agreed to a contract before the Soto sweepstakes concluded. Many of the teams that were in on Soto would have likely pivoted to Adames as one of the best alternatives on the market. This would have created a bidding war but Posey avoided this by signing him before it could come to that.

From a fan perspective, I liked that the deal did not include an opt-out clause. It is hard for fans to get invested in a player when you know he may only be in town for one season. That was the case with both Snell and Carlos Rodón. From a front office standpoint, I get why they might include opt-outs because it is a sign that the player either met or exceeded the expectations of the contract.

Lastly, I liked that the Giants added another middle-of-the-order hitter, especially one whose bat should translate well to Oracle Park. Milwaukee's home park, American Family Field, is similarly tough on right-handed hitters as Oracle Park. Adames has a knack for lifting and pulling. Much of his power is to left field and that should play in San Francisco.

What I did not like

Willy Adames rejected a qualifying offer, so the Brewers will receive a compensatory pick. They knew they would not be able to sign him. On the other hand, the Giants will lose a second-and-fifth-round pick as well as $1 million in international bonus pool money.

The Giants also give up a second-and-third-round pick as well as $1 million in 2024 when they signed Matt Chapman and Blake Snell. Chapman and Snell rejected a qualifying offer from the Toronto Blue Jays and San Diego Padres, respectively.

The Giants crossed the $237 million Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold in 2024 as well. This means that the penalty for signing a player who rejected a qualifying offer. Four relatively high picks and $2 million in international bonus pool money is just a lot of capital to lose in a two-year span.

The value that Adames brings to the table will likely outweigh the lost picks and money. Perhaps, the argument can be made that the Giants have not drafted well in years, so this tradeoff is fine. However, for teams to compete, they need the farm system to feed the major league roster. It is starting to happen but the farm system is still thin on impact talent outside of Bryce Eldridge. There is an opportunity cost for signing Adames.

Adames will improve the roster for the next several seasons but the contract length of seven years is a steep price. That is really the case for any contract. This is not unique to Adames. The veteran bat's contract carries an average annual value of $26 million. That is about the market rate for a shortstop of his caliber. That part of the deal is just fine.

The length might be a slight overpay. I should add that the seventh year is probably what helped get the deal done. If every team was offering six years, then none of the contracts stand out and Adames would have had to consider qualitative factors. Maybe he does not choose San Francisco in that case. Maybe he does. That seventh years feels like a bit much but that is the premium for getting the deal done.

Adames' contract includes a full no-trade clause. The same is true for Matt Chapman. That is a lever that certainly sweetens the deal for players. It gives them full autonomy in future trade talks whether that is staying put or leveraging the no-trade clause to be moved to where they desire.

The no-trade clause was a popular lever during the Bobby Evans era and made trading from their aging core difficult. This could become a roadblock down the road if the Giants are motivated to move Adames.

There is a good chance that Adames will not stick at shortstop throughout this deal. It runs through his age-35 season and there was a notable decline in his defensive metrics in 2024. I should caution that putting too much weight into the defensive numbers for one season can be misleading. The seven-year veteran has generally graded out as an above-average shortstop.

Adames' camp did convey that he would be open to a position change. Perhaps, this is a sign that the decline has already happened or that he is just a team player. The Giants hope that is a blip. By the end of the deal, he will likely shift to second base because there are not many everyday shortstops in their mid-30's.

Lastly, the strikeout rate is a number to monitor. He has a 27.2-percent strikeout rate in his career but that number has been better in recent seasons. It is still on the higher side but he offsets that with above-average power. If that rate inches closer to 30 percent, then it puts more pressure on his bat to hit for power, which becomes more difficult to do as a player ages.