Fangraphs projection system paints slightly rosier picture of SF Giants playoff odds in 2025

Fangraphs published its projected standings and playoff odds for 2025. For the SF Giants, it paints a slightly rosier picture than the PECOTA projections that had them as a 78-win team with a 15-percent chance of reaching the playoffs.

Fangraphs projection system paints slightly rosier picture of SF Giants playoff odds in 2025

Fangraphs sees them as an 81-win team with a 28-percent chance of reaching the playoffs. Not surprisingly, the Los Angeles Dodgers lead the NL West with 97 wins followed by the Arizona Diamondbacks at 86 wins based on these projections.

Interestingly, the San Diego Padres are coming in at 81 wins with an 32.5-percent chance of reaching the playoffs. They won 93 games just last season and posed the biggest threat to the Dodgers in the playoffs.

That said, they have been oddly silent this winter as they deal with budget constraints. They will return many of the same players next year with the core intact. However, they did get some unexpectedly nice contributions from Jurickson Profar, Donovan Solano, Kyle Higashioka, and David Peralta last season.

Profar, Solano, and Higashiako have all signed elsewhere. Peralta remains a free agent and might be a bit too costly. While the Padres have been silent this offseason, team president of baseball operations A.J. Preller is usually working the phones, so expect a move or two before the end of spring training.

I suppose the good news for the Giants' projections is that they are expected to net one win in 2025 while shedding payroll. At least, that is a win for the ownership group. They are projected to have $215 million committed against the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) in 2025 after setting a franchise record with $249 million last season.

On the other hand, the playoff odds are low and they are stuck in the baseball purgatory known as the middle. They have been in that area or worse for much of the past decade and the projections do not see them making any headwinds.

While Fangraphs and PECOTA differ slightly in terms of projected win-loss record for San Francisco, they are conveying a similar message. Unfortunately, that message is that they could be looking up at quite a few NL teams next season.