2025 PECOTA projected standings paints bleak picture of SF Giants

Baseball Prospectus published its PECOTA projected standings for 2025 on Monday morning. It does not paint a favorable picture of the SF Giants as it sees them as a 78-win team.

2025 PECOTA projected standings paints bleak picture of SF Giants

78 wins would be two fewer wins than they had last season. That win total would put them comfortably in fourth place with only a 15-percent chance of making the playoffs.

Not surprisingly, the Los Angeles Dodgers lead the NL West with 104 wins. The Arizona Diamondbacks leapfrogged the San Diego Padres with a projected win total of 86 games.

The Diamondbacks have not been the most active team but they did land Corbin Burnes on a six-year deal. The Padres have been oddly silent this offseason with the lack of activity due to budget constraints.

They won 93 games last year, but PECOTA pegs them as an 83-win team this season. That is a notable drop off despite keeping most of the core intact. The notable losses include Jurickson Profar, Donovan Solano, Kyle Higashioka, and likely David Peralta. Peralta, Higashioka, and Solano were all reliable role players, whereas Profar earned an NL All-Star bid while receiving down-ballot MVP votes. There is a good chance that the Padres make a notable move or two before Opening Day.

On the other hand, the Giants made two notable additions this winter, adding Willy Adames and Justin Verlander. They identified shortstop as a need when the offseason began and got the best option on the market.

Other than that, the roster will return many of the same players. Tyler Fitzgerald will shift over to second base with Adames entrenched as the team's shortstop. The Giants hope that the defense up the middle will be improved with this tandem as well as a healthy Jung Hoo Lee.

The rotation sat in the middle of the pack with a 4.22 ERA last season. That unit will have much more depth than it did last season. While the front office only made one addition to this unit in free agency, the Giants hope that much of the improvement comes from younger arms like Kyle Harrison, Hayden Birdsong, and Landen Roupp. Even Trevor McDonald could be a dark horse to crack the rotation in 2025.

The key for the Giants will be improved pitching defense with a lineup that puts up just enough runs to win some games. The 78-win projection might seem low but is where they have hovered for much of the past few years.