Carson Seymour’s simpler approach is giving SF Giants a clearer look at his potential

The earned run average (ERA) statistic can be a cruel one for relievers. For starting pitchers, a few long-lasting, efficient outings can substantially lower an ERA swelled by a couple of bad performances on the mound. Life is different for relievers, especially in small sample sizes. A couple of poor outings out of the bullpen and it can take them weeks to bring it back down to where it used to be.

SF Giants pitcher Carson Seymour is a good example of that phenomenon. On the season, his ERA is at 4.50, an unremarkable mark. Over his last 10 appearances, though, it's at 1.38. The reason? Seven of the 11 earned runs he's allowed this season have come in his first two outings back in early June. His ERA is still recovering from those games.

Seymour's recent stretch has offered a glimpse of his bullpen potential

However, Seymour has been effective lately. Beyond his ERA nosediving, his control and command have looked much sharper in his latest stretch. The sample sizes are minuscule, but his strikeout rate has risen from 9.1% over his first four appearances this season to 24.5% over his last 10 outings. Meanwhile, his walk rate has dropped from 13.6% to 5.7%. This type of productive stretch deserves attention. And a 4.50 season ERA, though still valid, can be deceptive. September will offer the 27-year-old more opportunities to continue to develop as a possible multi-inning reliever and strengthen his case for next year.

Coming out of the bullpen hasn't always been the plan for Seymour. Drafted by the New York Mets in the sixth round of the 2021 MLB draft, his stay in the Big Apple was short-lived. The Giants acquired him in August 2022 as part of the Darin Ruf trade. First in Richmond at the Double-A level and then in Sacramento with the Triple-A team, Seymour was mainly used as a starter. Out of his 95 combined appearances across the two levels, 75 of them were starts.

He reached the majors for the first time in June of last year and made three starts with the big-league club along with a few relief appearances. The plan changed when he got called up for the first time this year on June 5. He appeared in two games with the Giants, gave up a combined seven runs over 4 1/3 innings, got optioned back down, and never started a game again. After working as a multi-inning reliever for over a month with the River Cats, Seymour got recalled on August 3 following the organization's flurry of moves at the trade deadline.

The strategy was to continue to use him over multiple innings, though in low-leverage situations. He gave up a run in each of his first outings back before embarking on the best stretch of his young career. Over his last 10 appearances, Seymour has posted a 1.38 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 13 innings of action.

Keeping it simple is paying off for Carson Seymour

In Pittsburgh on Thursday afternoon following the Giants' 5-2 loss to the Pirates, manager Tony Vitello attributed that recent good run to less overthinking and more attacking.

“I think somewhere along the line there, he flipped a switch,” Vitello commented about Seymour. “I think he’s helped to unlock that a little bit with mindset. He’s simplified things a little bit, and he’s just throwing it. He’s got really good stuff. Rather than trying to be too crafty or too cute, he’s just throwing it up there and seeing what happens.”

In addition to striking out more batters and issuing fewer free passes, Seymour has been more assertive with the first pitch of the at-bat. His first-pitch strike rate has gone up from 38.6% over his first four outings to 56.6% over the past 10. He's putting himself in better counts early. Starting an at-bat 0-1 or 1-0 can be a night-and-day difference for a pitcher. It's also allowed him to maximize his arsenal. The fact that his stuff has looked rejuvenated helps, too.

Missing bats was a major problem early on for Seymour. An uptick in velocity, along with a nasty slider — opposing hitters are batting just .107 with a .107 slugging percentage against it — have helped address the issue. Over those same two timelines, the average velocity on his sinker went from 95.3 mph to 96.8, and from 87.5 mph to 89.3 for his slider. During his recent stretch, his four-seamer, his fourth-most-used pitch behind the cutter, slider and sinker, has averaged just under 98 mph. He topped out at 100.2 against the Pirates earlier this week.

His versatility out of the pen could allow him to fill multiple roles. He could follow a starter who exits early and eat up a couple or more innings. He could serve as the middle-inning bridge. Or, like on Wednesday in Pittsburgh, enter in a stressful situation and return for another inning.

In his last appearance, Seymour failed to strand both runners he inherited from Ryan Walker. He came into the game with runners on second and third with just one out, gave up a sacrifice fly that scored a run, escaped the inning, and allowed an earned run in the ensuing frame. On the season, three of the nine inherited runners he's had to deal with have turned into runs. One against the Pirates earlier this week and two against the Nationals in his second appearance of the season. He should receive similar opportunities over the final stretch of the season.

Just like a starter, a multi-inning reliever must be able to navigate through a lineup with hitters from both sides of the plate. That's another area he's improved upon during his recent good stretch. Last season, he faced 76 major-league lefties. They batted .304 with an .853 OPS. So far this season, he's faced 52 left-handed batters. They've posted an .861 OPS. But that number is somewhat misleading. Most of the damage was done over his first four appearances. Since then, he's kept those lefties in check, limiting them to a .214 batting average and .576 OPS. Still, the sample size is too limited to say he's completely figured them out. He still needs more reps. Guess what September is for?

His results against lefties will be one thing to monitor over those last three weeks. The other is whether or not he can continue to throw strikes and get himself in favorable counts to use that doozy of a slider. Once again, the sample size is very small—don't get me wrong. The Giants will need to see more to assure him of a spot in next year's bullpen. They at least have reasons to keep evaluating him.

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