A pair of SF Giants players likely to miss cutoff to reach arbitration early

According to MLB Trade Rumors, the Super Two cutoff this offseason is expected to be 2.140 years of service time. This would prevent a pair of SF Giants in Patrick Bailey and Ryan Walker from reaching arbitration one season early.

A pair of SF Giants players likely to miss cutoff to reach arbitration early

Typically, players reach arbitration once they accrue three years of service time. During this process, they can expect to see notable raises with each trip through arbitration.

There is a small segment of players who reach arbitration early, thereby getting a fourth year through this process. It means that they could see a sizable pay increase from the near league minimum salary they were earning.

This is refereed to as Super Two. It is determined by calculating the top 22 percent of players between two and three years of service time. Every year, this number moves marginally. For this offseason, it is expected to be at 2.140 years.

This cutoff would affect Patrick Bailey and Ryan Walker, both of whom have 2.136 years of service time. They were both called up on May 19, 2023, and have been accruing service time since then.

If that Super Two cutoff holds, then both players will still see a raise but their respective 2026 salaries will sit closer to the league minimum.

Earlier this offseason, MLB Trade Rumors published its projected arbitration salaries for 2026. For the Giants, this included Walker and Bailey. Walker was expected to earn $2.5 million, and Bailey was projected to see $2.2 million.

It would have been a relatively easy decision to tender both players a contract for 2026. Bailey is an elite defensive catcher, and is a finalist for his second straight Gold Glove Award. On the other hand, Walker had a down year but at that price point, it would have been worth the gamble to see if he could have a bounce back season.

The other three arbitration-eligible players for the Giants include JT Brubaker ($2.1 million), Joey Lucchesi ($2 million), and Andrew Knizner ($1.3 million).

Arbitration can often be a costly process for teams. However, that will not be the case for the Giants. They may even decide to non-tender any of these three players. Though, it would be a surprise to see Lucchesi non-tendered, as he gives the bullpen depth from the left side.

MLB Trade Rumors left the door ajar for that Super Two cutoff to shift. Any movement downward could result in a nice financial windfall for Bailey and Walker.