2028 is going to be the make-or-break year for Buster Posey's SF Giants project

2026 has been a disaster in pretty much every way for the SF Giants. It’s been the kind of season that would result in firings under different circumstances, but the Giants are almost certain to go into 2027 with Buster Posey as president of baseball operations and Tony Vitello as manager.

That’s the right call. It wouldn’t be fair for the Giants to pull the plug on Posey after one mediocre and then one bad season, but that doesn’t mean he’s just going to have indefinite leash in this role.

The 2027 season is going to be weird because of the lockout. MLB teams may not even play a full season depending how long the lockout lasts and that’s going to impact how every team approaches the offseason in terms of free agency and trades.

Even under normal circumstances it would be unfair to expect a great year from the Giants in 2027. There are too many holes in the pitching staff to fill in one offseason especially with all of the injuries, but if they can at least get back to around .500, which would be supremely ironic given how detestable four straight seasons of .500 baseball was under Farhan Zaidi, then at least it could be considered a step back in the right direction.

2028 is really going to be the test for Posey’s Giants. That year is important for a lot of reasons. He’s likely to be elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame next year which means he will have his jersey number officially retired in 2027 and will be inducted into Cooperstown, but 2028 will really be when Posey cannot hide behind his legacy as a player any longer.

By that point we are going to find out how the Vitello hire has aged. We will find out how the big investments in Matt Chapman, Willy Adames, and Rafael Devers really look. Perhaps most importantly, we will start to see if the draft picks made under the Posey regime have panned out since there’s a good chance Jackson Flora will be with the big league club by then.

Giants need to be a competitive team by 2028 if Posey wants to stay

That is when the Giants have to legitimately contend. They don’t have to win the National League West or anything, but if they are at least in the playoff picture and hanging with teams like the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks then that’s not a terrible place to be. That would suggest that Posey’s vision is working and that he should remain as the head of baseball operations.

But if the team is still well below .500 and Posey’s biggest moves start to look like very clear mistakes, then it’s time to start wondering whether someone else should take the reins. Posey seems pretty self aware and it is likely that he would step aside if he felt he was not the right guy for the job, but the competitor in him would hate it if he failed to restore the Giants to contender status.

It’s far from a sure thing that the Giants will get things turned around by 2028. They’re going to need to boost the pitching staff in a big way and they’re going to need their young players to come through the pipeline and contribute at the big league level.

2028 really could be that make-or-break year that decides whether Posey stays or goes. The team has a really promising farm system so it’s not crazy to think the future will be better, yet one can’t help but feel a little uneasy after how poorly 2026 has gone. 

Perhaps it’s fitting that Posey, who wore No. 28 when he was a player and was drafted by the Giants in 2008, will need to steer the ship into calmer waters in the next two years. He is a legend as a player no matter what, but if he wants to be a legend as an executive then that is the year he needs to circle on his calendar. 

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