San Francisco Giants: Building a trade with the Atlanta Braves

The San Francisco Giants rebuild has begun. The best remaining players on the roster will soon be leaving the bay. As the trade deadline approaches, Marc Delucchi will look at how each contender fits as a potential trade partner. Next up, the Atlanta Braves.

After last night’s loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers, the San Francisco Giants are now 11 games under .500 and 18.5 games back in the NL West. To add some salt into the wounds, their run-differential actually suggests their record should be worse than it already is.

Recent rule changes have eliminated August waiver trades for big league players. That could make both buyers and sellers more aggressive earlier than we’ve seen in years past. Contenders won’t want to miss the chance to fill a hole and sellers won’t want to miss the opportunity to move their best assets set for free agency.

The Atlanta Braves clearly fall into the contender category.

They surprised a lot of people last season when they won 90 games en route to an NL East title. As we approach the end of June, they’ve built a 4.5-game lead on the Philadelphia Phillies and appear primed for another postseason run.

It will be interesting to see how the Braves approach the deadline They have one of the five best farm-systems in baseball, but also don’t have a lot of holes to plug. Go look through their lineup and you’ll find eight players who would be one of the most productive players on the San Francisco Giants roster.

That said, the bullpen is the clear area of need. Closer Luke Jackson is the only reliever with a FIP below 3.10 and they don’t really have any relievers with a long history of success. The starting rotation has been an area of concern for some time, but they inked Dallas Keuchel to a one-year deal and he’s slated to debut on Friday.

However, even after adding Keuchel, here’s how the Atlanta rotation stands:

• Mike Soroka (2.12 ERA/3.08 FIP)
• Julio Teheran (3.40 ERA/4.35 FIP)
• Max Fried (4.03 ERA/3.97 FIP)
• Mike Foltynewicz (5.53 ERA/6.04 FIP)
• Dallas Keuchel (no 2019 stats)

Both Sean Newcomb and Kevin Gausman are on the IL, but Newcomb was strong out of the pen and Gausman’s ERA is 6.21 on the season. Bumgarner would still fill a hole for Atlanta in the rotation.

Furthermore, the Braves would be playing keep away from some of their biggest NL competition. As I’ve written about in previous editions of the series, the Phillies, Brewers, and Cubs are all prime candidates for at least one of Bumgarner or closer Will Smith.

I’ve been adamant that the Giants are very unlikely to package Bumgarner and Smith together in a deadline trade. As two of the best players available this summer, the Giants should be able to find solid markets for both. However, the Braves are one of the few exceptions. Their farm system is flush with top talent and the Giants best means of extracting a big return might be to ship them to Atlanta as a pair.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at a few potential trade packages that could make sense for both the San Francisco Giants and the Atlanta Braves.

San Francisco Giants Trade Proposal #1

To Braves: LHP Madison Bumgarner, LHP Will Smith
To Giants: RHP Kyle Wright, LHP Kolby Allard, 3B CJ Alexander

In my opinion, even after Bumgarner’s bashing last night, a return package for Smith and Bumgarner on their own should net at least a pair of 45 level prospects with the potential to nab a low-end 50 future value prospect. Thus, to justify combining the two, it would take a 55 prospect as a centerpiece.

Few teams have the system depth to make it plausible to part with a prospect of that caliber. However, the Braves have at least four prospects with 55 FV grades from every major publication and multiple right-handed pitchers. I’m higher on Ian Anderson than Kyle Wright, but either one would be a fantastic get for the Giants.

Wright was selected fifth overall by the Braves in the 2017 MLB Draft out of Vanderbilt and he’s already at Triple-A. However, his 2019 season has not gotten off to a great start. Through 11 starts, Wright has a 6.08 ERA. Still, his strikeout and walk rates are solid and the 23-year old still is showing a legit three to four-pitch mix that has frontline projection.

Southpaw Kolby Allard has had better results at Triple-A this season. He’s averaged over 5.5 innings per start and held opponents to a 3.92 ERA. That said, he’s a pitchability lefty with limited upside. His fastball works from the high-80s to low-90s and while he has an above-average changeup and curveball, he needs to maintain plus command to be effective.

CJ Alexander was a 20th-round pick in last year’s draft who played his way into starting this season at Double-A. He struggled through the early part of the season before ending up on the injured list. He projects as an above-average defensive third baseman with a good feel for hitting, albeit with limited power.

The Giants would be getting two pitching prospects who are already at Triple-A—one who projects at the front of the rotation and another likely set to be a backend starter—alongside a solid position player.

It wouldn’t shock me if the Braves decide to rely on their homegrown talent to fill out their rotation, but if they want to be aggressive, this could take two of the best arms available off the market.

There is also a far more likely and considerably more “boring” fit between the two teams.