San Francisco Giants: Building a trade with the Milwaukee Brewers

San Francisco Giants Trade Proposal #1

To Brewers: LHP Madison Bumgarner
To Giants: RHP Corbin Burnes, SS Mauricio Dubon, OF Je’von Ward

Everyone knows longtime San Francisco Giants ace Madison Bumgarner has the best resume of any starting pitcher available this summer and that he is likely on the move. I’ve already looked at his potential fit with the Phillies, Yankees, Twins, and Astros.

The closest recent trade comparison to Bumgarner seems to be Yu Darvish when he was traded from the Rangers to Dodgers a couple of summers ago. Both have performed as aces but were not quite pitching at an ace level when they hit the trade block.

The Dodgers traded Willie Calhoun, a consensus top-100 prospect at the time, alongside A.J. Alexy (who became a top-20 prospect in the Texas system), and Brendon Davis (who became a top-30 prospect in the Texas system).

Among current Brewers prospects, Keston Hiura, Tristen Lutz, Corey Ray, and Brice Turang have all been ranked in top 100 lists.

The Giants probably don’t have the assets to acquire Hiura, even if they added to a Bumgarner package, while Ray has performed so poorly at Triple-A that his prospect status has taken a huge step backward. In their most recent update, FanGraphs did not even give him 45 Future Value.

Turang and Lutz could both be centerpieces, but I think Milwaukee will try hard to hold onto both, especially Turang. Lutz may make sense, but I think he’s more likely to be included in another trade—more on that in a bit.

If the Brewers won’t part with one of their top 100 prospects, they’ll have to make up for it in the overall depth of the trade package. Corbin Burnes and Mauricio Dubon probably would have been enough to get Bumgarner before the season started.

Burnes, a right-handed pitcher, finished last year strong while pitching out of the Milwaukee bullpen, and there were hopes he would emerge as a legitimate mid-rotation arm this year.

Instead, this season has been a roller coaster for Burnes, to the point that he has already been relegated back to the bullpen. His strikeout and walk numbers still are impressive, but he’s given up a lot of loud contact. He still has some of the highest spin-rates in baseball and there is still reason to believe some minor adjustment and a small step forward with his command could still make him a mid-rotation starter. The Brewers aren’t in a position to be patient, though.

Dubon looked like the next in line to man the Brewers’ middle infield last season, but after tearing his ACL in May he missed the remainder of the season. He has since returned to Triple-A and is putting up a respectable .301/.335/.457 line in the Pacific Coast League. He’s an above-average defender at shortstop but has also handled second base well. With the emergence of Hiura, Dubon has become expendable.

Rounding out the package is 19-year-old outfielder Je’Von Ward.

A 12th-round pick in 2017, he signed for an above-slot $475,000 bonus. Speed is his best present tool and he covers ground well in center field. There is some power potential, but he will need to adjust a swing that is currently geared toward putting the ball in play. As is, he projects as a soft-hitting fourth outfielder who might have an everyday ceiling.

Bumgarner would add some welcome stability to the Brewers rotation alongside Brandon Woodruff and Gio Gonzalez. Burnes and Dubon could play through their growing pains with the Giants, while Ward would be an intriguing addition to the lower levels of the minor leagues.

San Francisco Giants Trade Proposal #2

To Brewers: LHP Will Smith
To Giants: OF Tristen Lutz, RHP Zack Brown, OF Larry Ernesto

This would be a tough pill for Milwaukee Brewers fans to swallow.

The San Francisco Giants originally acquired Will Smith from the Brewers back in 2016 in exchange for prospects Phil Bickford and Andrew Susac.

In the years since, neither has developed into a contributor at the MLB level, while Smith has developed into one of the best closers in baseball. In fact, he’ll probably be in higher demand than Bumgarner at the deadline.

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Pairing Smith with Josh Hader would give the Brewers an elite duo at the back of the bullpen. Obviously, other teams like the Cubs, Rays, Phillies, Twins, and many other contenders will have the same idea.

I mentioned outfielder Tristen Lutz on the previous slide, and I think the Brewers might be more inclined to include him for Smith.

The 20-year-old is a right-handed hitting corner outfielder who projects to have average tools across the board with 55/60 power. He’s already holding his own at High-A where he’s hitting .247/.329/.430. While he’s not currently performing at the same incredible level as Giants prospect Heliot Ramos, he would still be a great addition to develop alongside him.

Now that Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff have reached the majors, Zack Brown is arguably Milwaukee’s top pitching prospect. Granted, that’s not saying a whole lot. Trey Supak is performing very well at Double-A but is already 23 and projects at the back of the rotation. Aaron Ashby is still at least a season away from being in big league consideration and Drew Rassmussen’s injury raises questions about his long-term substantially.

Brown has struggled mightily to start the season. He’s pitching in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, but he’s not missing bats and he’s walking more players than he should with 37 free passes in 65.2 innings. The 24-year-old has a complex delivery and relies heavily on a fastball-curveball mix that has long had scouts worried he will need to move to the pen. If the Brewers believe that’s the case, letting him go for Smith could be an easier decision.

Larry Ernesto is an intriguing 18-year-old who performed well in his first tastes of pro ball. He should be able to stick in center field and could develop solid power as his body matures.

The Brewers front office might have a hard time moving this much prospect talent for a bullpen arm when there’s still a pressing need in the rotation. Perhaps Lutz and Ernesto alone could be packaged to get Sam Dyson, who would offer a nice platoon complement to Hader.

Still, the market for Smith will be intense. If they believe another lock-down reliever is necessary to get them over the top, they shouldn’t hesitate to pull the trigger. Just ask Chicago Cubs fans if they regret trading Gleyber Torres for Aroldis Chapman. Go get a ring and worry about the rest later.

If the Milwaukee Brewers and San Francisco Giants are going to match up on a deal, it could very well look something like this.

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