San Francisco Giants Spring Training Preview: Outfield

As the Chicago Cubs ended the San Francisco Giants quest for a fourth World Series title, Bobby Evans — suddenly thrust into his third offseason no more than an hour after a Game 5 showdown at Wrigley Field seemed inevitable — knew he had to address the matter of who would assume the role of closer and who would snatch left field.

Five months later, the former issue now needn’t be discussed for years to come; the latter, still remains uncertain.

Instead of attempting to make another splash in the free agent market after signing Mark Melancon to a four-year, $62 million contract, the San Francisco Giants elected for the more conservative and cost-friendly option, opting for Mac Williamson and Jarrett Parker to fight for the starting spot in Scottsdale during spring training.

Other than the annual influx of outfielders who signed minor-league contracts during the offseason in hopes of becoming the latest Andrés Torres-esque phenomenon, the front office has not tinkered with the outfield all.

San Francisco’s new marquee closer ate up the entirety of the offseason budget, and now the team will have to make do with its current pool of talent.

Sticking with the status quo isn’t necessarily the dream scenario for the Giants. While Parker and Williamson both have the potential to develop into solid, everyday left fielders for the team, they’re unproven prospects with a combined 366 career plate appearances at the major league level.

Justifiably so, FanGraphs ranks San Francisco 25th in left field depth, as well as 20th in center field depth — far from the preferred marks when constructing a championship contender. But aside from the ensuing Parker/Williamson battle, there is no question regarding who will occupy the other two outfield positions. Who claims the Giants’ backup outfielder spots remains up in the air, but there are clear frontrunners who must lose the spot more than win it.

The San Francisco Giants statistically had one of baseball’s most average outfields last season, hovering around the middle of the pack offensively while thriving with the leather, but what can the league expect from San Francisco’s three-man unit as the team heads into a new season?

For Around the Foghorn’s positional spring training preview, I will analyze the various dynamics and expected output of each outfielder and conclude with a prediction of who is likeliest to crack the Opening Day roster.

The Guaranteed Starters

Barring a trade to end all trades, which would send a Mike Trout or a Bryce Harper to the City by the Bay, Denard Span and Hunter Pence will once again retain their rank as San Francisco’s Opening Day center fielder and right fielder, respectively.

Pence, 33, and Span, 32, debuted within one season of each other — the former of the duo making his major league debut in 2007 and the latter in 2008. Clubhouse leaders who produce at a level similar to these two outfielders are a sought after commodity, and the San Francisco Giants can take pride in having two of the best veteran outfielders in the business.

Formerly a durable, well-oiled machine who played in at least 154 games from 2008 to 2014, Pence’s body has been unkind to him in the past two seasons. Since 2015 Pence has missed time due to a fractured left forearm, left wrist tendinitis, a left oblique strain, and a torn hamstring tendon in his right knee, all of which has sidelined him for more than half of San Francisco’s regular-season games. Currently, the heart and soul of the San Francisco Giants is battling a minor injury to his right side but fully expects to suit up for Opening Day.

Injuries aside, Pence remains a premium right fielder. In 2016 over 106 games, the 11-year veteran hit .289/.357/.451 with 13 home runs, a wOBA of .349, and a WAR of 2.1. The right fielder’s wRC+ of 121 ranked eighth among outfielders with a minimum of 400 plate appearances.

Before a torn hamstring sidelined him from June 2 to July 29, Pence hit .298/.375/.486 over 208 plate appearances. Following his return, the right fielder couldn’t match his pre-injury production but batted a solid .280/.342/.421 nonetheless. When the San Francisco Giants needed his production most, Pence caught fire in September and October, slashing .307/.373/.500 over 126 plate appearances with five of his six post-injury home runs in September and October.

ZiPS Projections expect Pence to regress in 2017, forecasting that he will bat .276/.335/.456 with 16 home runs, a wOBA of .342, and a zWAR of 2.3 over 457 plate appearances.

Pence’s outfield neighbor Span, who will turn 33 in less than two weeks, has fought the injury bug in own his right. Before inking a three-year, $31 million contract with the orange and black last offseason to leave has native Washington D.C.; the Nationals sent Span to the disabled list three times — the last of which ended his season in late-August. Span played arguably the best baseball of his career, in a contract year no less, hitting .301/.365/.431 with a career-high wRC+ of 120 and wOBA of .348, the second-highest mark of his career.

Other than a few minor dings, Span was on the field for the bulk of the season, playing in 143 games during his inaugural season with the Giants. Span couldn’t recreate the same success as 2015 at the plate as his offensive numbers across the board deviated from his career averages. Over 637 plate appearances Span slashed .266/.331/.381 with a wRC+ of 96, although he did slug a career-high 11 home runs, including one on Opening Day as part of a string of back-to-back-to-back long balls with Joe Panik and Buster Posey.

Similar to Pence, ZiPS Projections believe that Span will have a noticeable dropoff in production, estimating that he will bat .270/.328/.372 with a wOBA of .313 and a zWAR of 1.6 in 535 plate appearances.

The bulk of the San Francisco Giants’ offensive production will derive from the infield — ZiPS projects all five members of the infield to have the highest zWARs of any offensive player — meaning Pence and Span aren’t responsible for the heavy lifting with the bat, but should rather supplement the team’s core.

The Bench

The bench is the most malleable aspect of a major league roster. While the lineup, rotation, and bullpen is for the most part set in stone before the beginning of spring training, the annual fight just to crack the major league roster by auditioning for the part of role player remains a consistent narrative. A blend of young up-and-comers, diamonds in the rough, and aging veterans on career life support, the competition for the 25th spot on a roster is, needless to say, an entertaining fiasco.

For the San Francisco Giants, however, the question of who will be the team’s primary backup outfielder is hardly a question worth asking. While the front office has stockpiled intriguing talents on minor-league contracts, the overwhelming favorite is the only ball player of the bunch who suited up for the team last season — Gorkys Hernández.

I discussed the outfielder already in my mini-series “Riding the Pine,” but to reiterate some of the key points, Hernández is cut from the same cloth as Gregor Blanco. Combining the versatility to play all three spots in the outfield with a solid glove, an above-average arm, and decent speed, Hernández is the prototypical backup outfielder.

Hernández, 29, lacks the ideal major league experience of a backup option with only 104 games and 235 career plate appearances under his belt, but he has finally found an ideal situation in San Francisco.

Over 57 plate appearances towards the backend of the regular season, Hernández had modest success at the plate, hitting .259/.298/.463 with a wOBA of .324, a wRC+ of 105, and two homers. Incredibly aggressive with a bat in his hands, Hernández will entice pitchers to throw him junk outside the zone knowing he’ll take the bait, a weakness which has followed the outfielder throughout his professional career.

Due to the constraints of the luxury tax, Evans could not afford to try his hand at some of the pricier role players on the market and will instead try his luck with the plethora of outfielders he signed to minor-league contracts, as well as organizational prospects.

Among those with an opportunity to make the team are Michael Morse, Justin Ruggiano, Kyle Blanks, Chris Marrero, Wynton Bernard, Austin Slater, and Steven Duggar, all of whom have a case as to why they should begin the season with the San Francisco Giants, some more than others, but only one or two of the bunch have a realistic chance.

Like Hernández, I have covered Morse, Ruggiano, Blanks, and Slater during my “Riding the Pine” series, all of which will provide more specifics regarding each player. Of the bunch, if the Giants decide not to platoon Parker and Williamson, Ruggiano is San Francisco’s best option.

Plain and simple, Ruggiano knows how to hit left-handed pitching. With a career slash line of .275/.338/.527 and 27 home runs in 555 career plate appearances against southpaws, Ruggiano is a valuable gem, especially when the Giants inevitably have to face Clayton Kershaw and the rest of the lefty-happy starting rotation of the Los Angeles Dodgers.