Baseball Prospectus recently revealed their PECOTA ratings for the upcoming season, and they are way off on the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants.
They obviously picked the Dodgers to win the division, which isn’t crazy as most people are, but to predict that they will win 99 games is ridiculous.
Yes, Clayton Kershaw is the best pitcher in the game – outside of the postseason of course – but it’s a big drop off in the rotation after him.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not trying to say the Dodgers are terrible, but what about that team screams 99 wins?
I would not be surprised at all if they win the National League West, but they aren’t touching that many wins.
As for the San Francisco Giants, PECOTA has them projected to win 86 games. The Giants won 87 games last year and didn’t really lose anything, but instead added Mark Melancon to the bullpen, which was their biggest weakness las year.
So how can you project that they’ll be worse in 2017?
I’m not smart enough, and don’t care to take the time, to figure out how they come up with these projections, but the system is broken.
These are just fun predictions to give us something to talk about before spring training, but come on guys, let’s use some commons sense.
I know what’s on paper doesn’t always correlate to what happens on the field in baseball. And how these teams look today will be completely different in October, but you can’t tell me that on paper the Dodgers are 13 wins better than the Giants right now.