What can the SF Giants expect from a former Cy Young winner in 2025?

If the SF Giants are going to have a good year in 2025, they will need 2021 Cy Young winner Robbie Ray to be a big part of it. What can they expect from him next season?

What can the SF Giants expect from a former Cy Young winner in 2025?

Following that 2021 campaign, the Seattle Mariners rewarded him with a five-year, $115 million pact. This included an opt-out clause after the 2024 season that he did not exercise.

That move was not too surprising. After all, the southpaw pitcher returned from Tommy John surgery midway through the 2024 season. It would have taken a lot to go right for him to even consider walking away from the two years and $50 million remaining on his deal.

It was a mixed bag for Ray in 2024 and that was to be expected. It takes time for pitchers to return to their pre-surgery form. He posted a 4.70 ERA with 43 strikeouts against 15 walks in 30.2 innings before finishing the season on the injured list with a hamstring strain.

The Giants will need him along with Logan Webb to fill the front end of the rotation. They have a lot of inexperience behind him with Kyle Harrison, Hayden Birdsong, Jordan Hicks, and Landen Roupp among others.

Can the Giants reasonably expect Ray to support the front of the rotation next season? When the Giants traded for him, I think the Giants would have been satisfied if he replicated the 3.71 ERA he posted in his last full season on the mound. That was his first year with the Mariners.

Perhaps, that was not the type of production that Seattle expected but it was not bad either. He kept them in ballgames and it is hard to ask for much more from a starting pitcher.

That said, there is an unfortunate stat split with Ray's 3.71 ERA in 2022. He posted a 3.02 ERA in 18 starts at home compared to a 4.69 ERA in 14 outings on the road. That is a trend that many Mariners pitchers have demonstrated in recent seasons.

For example, Seattle's pitching staff registered a 2.85 ERA at home versus a 4.18 ERA on the road. This is due in large part to the influence of Seattle's home ballpark. T-Mobile Park is the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in baseball by a comfortable margin.

Baseball Savant has a ballpark factor that combines several variables into one unit such as how favorable it is to hit a home run. They use 100 as a baseline for average, so anything above it or below is a basis-point change for either the pitcher or hitter

T-Mobile Park has a 91 Park Factor, meaning that overall offense is nine percent below league average. On the other hand, Oracle Park has a 97 Park Factor, so overall offense is three percent below league average.

Ray went from the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in baseball to one of the more pitcher-friendly ballparks in baseball. Pitching at Oracle Park should still aid his numbers, but not quite to the extent that Seattle's home ballpark did.

The Giants hope that Ray can still be a solid, mid-rotation starter. He will have a pitcher-friendly ballpark and good infield defense in his favor. However, the 11-year veteran will need to prove that he can be better on the road and keep the team in games.