Should the SF Giants be concerned about star hitter's in-zone contact rate?

In his nine-year career, Rafael Devers has seen his in-zone contact rate go from 79.6 percent as a rookie down to 71.4 percent in 2025. How concerned should the SF Giants be about this decline in his contact skills?

Should the SF Giants be concerned about star hitter's in-zone contact rate?

Not surprisingly, Devers has seen a corresponding increase in his strikeout rate. In 2017, he had a 23.8 percent strikeout rate. That number jumped up to 26.3 percent last season, including a 29.4 percent strikeout rate in a Giants uniform.

In particular, the strikeout rate has seen a larger spike over the past couple of seasons. The left-handed hitter has demonstrated comfortably below-average in-zone contact skills. The gradual decline throughout his career could be one of the first signs of regression, but is that what is actually taking place?

It might depend on who you ask. In today's game, strikeout rates are at an all-time high and many fans do not like to see it. While hitters are no longer seeking out contact for the sake of making contact, this belief also overlooks how good the pitching has become.

On the other hand, Devers has put up some of his best offensive seasons recently. In 2025, he slashed .252/.372/.479 (135 wRC+) with 35 home runs, 109 RBI, and 99 runs in 729 plate appearances. This corresponded with the highest strikeout rate of his career as well. The 136 wRC+ was the third-best mark of his career.

Let's break this out differently. Through the first five seasons of Devers' career, he put up an .847 OPS with a 21.6 percent strikeout rate. Over the past four seasons, he has recorded an .863 OPS with a 22.3 percent strikeout rate.

Is he regressing as a hitter? There are a number of ways to analyze this, but there is one metric that stands out. It is a bit onthe analytic side, so I apologize for this! Devers put up a .452 xwOBAcon in 2025, compared to a .371 league average xwOBAcon rate. What is xwOBAcon? I do not want to go too deep into the weeds here, but let's think of it as a measure of quality of contact. It tries to improve upon wOBA and xwOBA by reducing the noise from strikeouts and walks to focus solely on contact.

In nine seasons, Devers has put up a .433 xwOBAcon. In the past couple of seasons, he has been above the 90th percentile in that category, meaning that he has been better than 90 percent of the hitters in baseball. Based on this metric, he is elite, and it has only trended up as his career has progressed.

So, should the Giants be concerned about Devers' in-zone contact rate? It still depends on who you ask. Strikeouts are not great, and many fans do not like seeing it. However, Devers is seemingly shifting his approach to favor quality of contact over contact.

Teams are generally fine with a middle-of-the-order hitter making that tradeoff. It does not feel like he is regressing as a hitter because, while strikeouts are up, his quality of contact is also improving. To put it differently, when he makes contact, he is hitting the ball better than he has in the past.