Should SF Giants be concerned about alarming spring training trend from breakout rookie?

Tyler Fitzgerald had a breakout rookie campaign in 2024, solidifying himself as the SF Giants everyday second baseman this season. However, there were some red flags in his profile, including a high strikeout rate that ballooned to 46.8 percent this spring.

Should SF Giants be concerned about alarming spring training trend from breakout rookie?

I do need to add that caveat that I just do not put any weight into spring training stats. If a player hits .350 during that spring, that is a great performance. However, the chances of it translating to the season are low. It is just not indicative of regular season performance for a lot of reasons.

However, I do look at trends and processes. For example, the Giants pitching staff was attacking the strike zone better than just about every team this spring. That feels like a philosophy that will translate to the regular season.

For hitters, I am not concerned with topline stats. Rather, I am looking at how they hit the ball, where they hit the ball, and against what type of pitcher.

The Giants know that Fitzgerald will have some swing-and-miss to his game. He struck out in 27.6 percent of his plate appearances last season. In the minors, he posted a 28.3 percent strikeout rate.

One way or the other, he will likely strike out in more than one-quarter of his plate appearances. The Giants will certainly take that if he offsets that with power and baserunning value. The right-handed bat recorded a .497 slugging percentage with 17 steals in 21 opportunities last year, so he added good value despite a high strikeout rate.

If he trends closer to 30 percent or higher, it becomes a number to monitor. There were only five qualified hitters with a strikeout rate above 30 percent in 2024. Those that did include Elly De La Cruz and Colton Cowser, both of whom added good power and speed.

Fitzgerald had an incredible streak in July, leading to him earning NL Rookie of the Month honors. His statcast numbers do not jump off the page, but he was able to lift and pull better than most hitters last season. That was the key to his success.

With his success came a scouting report. Pitchers began throwing up in the zone with four-seam fastballs that he struggled to cover, and pitches on the outer half where he did not do much damage. His numbers cratered to a .592 OPS with a 36.3 percent strikeout rate in the final six weeks of the year, spanning 146 total plate appearances.

Pitchers have continued throwing up high, and on the outer half of the zone this spring. He has tallied a 46.8 percent strikeout rate in 47 plate appearances.

Obviously, the Giants view him as the everyday second baseman, so this has no bearing on that status. It is spring training, too, so it may all be forgotten in a few weeks. This is just something to park away for down the road.