SF Giants-Phillies preview: Giants catch the Phillies at the perfect time

Trajectories can shift in a hurry in baseball. Take the SF Giants' next opponent, for example: the Philadelphia Phillies. Their solid, though unspectacular, 5-4 start to the season quickly turned into a complete mess after they endured a 10-game losing streak that just resulted in manager Rob Thomson being axed.

On the other side, things have been looking up for the Giants since their unnerving 3-8 start. They're closing in on .500 after winning three consecutive series, their offense looks much better than it did during the first couple of weeks, and their pitching staff is getting more and more comfortable.

Both offenses have been underwhelming since the two teams last met, ranking near the bottom of the league in basically every offensive category. However, what has propelled the Giants to three straight series wins — and caused the Phillies to lose 13 of their last 16 while posting a league-worst -54 run differential — has been the pitching.

The Giants' pitching staff has been one of the best in baseball since shutting out that Phillies team in the final two games of their last series three weeks ago. Their 3.22 ERA is second only to the Dodgers, they boast the lowest opponent batting average at .207, and their .645 opponent OPS ranks third behind only the Pirates and Dodgers.

Meanwhile, the Phillies' 5.58 ERA ranks 29th, their .304 opponent batting average is the highest in baseball, and their .846 opponent OPS is better than only the Astros'. They allowed 6.9 runs per game during their 10-game skid, their first since September 1999.

Pitching matchups

Projected starters

Tuesday: Tyler Mahle (RHP 1-3, 5.26 ERA) vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP 1-3, 6.91 ERA)

Wednesday: Logan Webb (RHP 2-3, 4.86 ERA) vs. Cristopher Sanchez (LHP 2-2, 2.95 ERA)

Thursday: Adrian Houser (RHP 0-3, 7.36 ERA) vs. Andrew Painter (RHP 1-2, 5.25 ERA)

The Giants will send Mahle, Webb, and Houser to the mound in Philadelphia. Mahle is coming off his most convincing and authoritative outing of the season against the Dodgers and put some fans' minds at ease in the process. He threw seven shutout innings and allowed just three hits, lowering his ERA to 5.26 after it had risen to 7.23 in Cincinnati.

His shutout performance against L.A. was his second of the year. The promising sign about that matchup is that his first one came against that same Phillies team, when he kept Philadelphia scoreless through 5 2/3 innings while allowing just three hits.

Webb hasn't been the best version of himself so far, but nobody should be too worried about it — at least not yet. He just put together an encouraging performance against the Dodgers, giving up only three runs over seven innings. If one of this team's main concerns is whether Logan Webb will turn things around at some point, the Giants are in decent shape — because he will.

However, the clock is ticking for Adrian Houser, especially after he allowed eight runs against Miami last week, bumping his ERA to 7.36. While it is still too early to talk about moving him to the bullpen, the ice is getting thinner by the game. Since allowing just one run in his Giants debut against the Padres, he has allowed four or more runs in each of his starts, pitched through the fifth inning just once, and is still looking for his first win in orange and black. Through five starts with the Giants, he's given up the third-most runs (24) and fifth-most hits (38) in the National League.

The Giants will face two lefties in Jesús Luzardo and Cristopher Sánchez, both of whom have shown vulnerabilities this season. After signing a five-year, $135 million extension in March, Luzardo, who is coming off the best season of his career, has struggled to find a rhythm early on. He has allowed five or more runs in three of his five starts, and his 21 total earned runs allowed are the fourth-most in the National League, tied with Houser.

Sánchez will face the Giants for the second time this season after San Francisco put up four runs on 11 hits against him earlier this month. He also gave up 11 hits and four runs against the Giants last season, but over two starts.

Matt Chapman and Rafael Devers have had Sánchez’s number throughout their careers. Chapman has gone 7-for-11 with two doubles and a home run against him, while Devers, who could really use a big game, has gone 5-for-11 with a triple.

Hitting lefties has been a new trend for the Giants after faring poorly against them last season, posting a league-low .631 OPS against southpaws. So far this year, they boast a .280 batting average and .734 OPS against left-handed pitchers despite being shut out by Max Fried on Opening Day.

Rookie Andrew Painter will close out the series for Philadelphia. Just like Sánchez, the Giants had success against him in their first matchup, with Painter getting pulled after just four innings. The Giants could look to load their lineup with righties against him, as he has posted a 2.00 WHIP against right-handed hitters so far this season.

A couple of key contributors stuck in the mud

Rafael Devers' issues to make any kind of contact are now well-known, and the longer it lasts, the more worry the front office should get. Probably the most confusing part about that slump is that pitchers are relentlessly going at him with fastballs, and what's even more surprising is that it's actually working.

Devers has always seen and squared up the four-seam fastball well. Over his eight-year career, his slugging percentage on this pitch has always but once been over .500. So far this season, it's at .333 and he's batting a meager .167. The good news about that cold spell is that once Devers gets back to being his usual self, he might just blast the next four fastballs he sees out of the park.

He will play at Citizens Bank Park for the first time as a Giant, a ballpark he's had success in with the Red Sox. In his 12 games there, he's gone 13-for-45 (.289), with four home runs, 11 RBI, and a 1.004 OPS. And while Casey Schmitt's and Jung Hoo Lee's recent hot stretches are welcome signs, in order for this offense to live up to its potential, it'll need his most expected contributor to come alive. Philly looks like the ideal place to do just that.

As for the Phillies, shortstop Trea Turner has gotten off to a sluggish start. His numbers are not as alarming as Devers', but in the fourth year of his 11-year, $300 million contract — and after failing to fully recapture his Dodgers-days production in his first three seasons with the franchise — they are clearly not at the level the front office expected when committing such a sum of money to him. He enters the series batting just .230/.304/.354 with a .658 OPS, three home runs, and nine RBI.

The Giants will walk into Citizens Bank Park today on a three-series losing streak there, but against a Phillies team that looks as vulnerable as ever. Philadelphia will probably not be this bad for the remainder of the season, so there are two outcomes on the table for the Giants: they either sink the Phillies even deeper into their misery and win a fourth straight series, or they become the team that gave them their mojo back.

We'll know a little more after today's series opener.

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