SF Giants’ blown saves reveal a problem that goes far beyond the pitching staff

Having a 3-1 lead in the ninth inning with two outs and a runner on first base is a situation that will more often than not result in a plus-one in the win column. The San Francisco Giants were in that exact scenario on Tuesday night against the Diamondbacks at Chase Field, but somehow found a way to lose.

With Ildemaro Vargas in scoring position, Adrian Del Castillo lined a single to center field, driving in Vargas and cutting the Giants’ lead to just one. Then, No. 9 hitter Ryan Waldschmidt reached base on a debatable catcher’s interference call against Daniel Susac, who was trying to throw out the runner at second.

With switch-hitter Ketel Marte coming up, Tony Vitello decided to make a pitching change: Caleb Kilian came out, and Matt Gage came in. On Gage’s second pitch, Marte sent the ball over the left-center-field fence, the Diamondbacks walked it off, and the Giants lost their fourth straight game against an NL West rival.

When asked about the devastating loss, rookie manager Tony Vitello took full accountability.

"Made the wrong decision, cost us the game," Vitello said. "Obviously it's on me."

The decision Vitello made is hard to defend, even for a manager with no professional baseball experience. Yes, Ketel Marte has been struggling against lefties this season, but he’s been struggling, period. On a larger scale, though, since 2021, Marte has posted a .926 OPS against left-handed pitchers compared to a .799 OPS against right-handed pitchers. He’s always been solid against righties, but deadly against lefties.

Besides, although Gage has been good against righties this season, holding them to a .602 OPS, last season showed he wasn’t at his best against right-handed hitters. In his first half-season in San Francisco, Gage allowed an .884 OPS against right-handed hitters. What makes that choice even harder to understand is that Caleb Kilian has been nothing but great against lefties this season. Entering Tuesday, left-handed hitters had gone just 5-for-46 (.109), driven in just two runs, failed to hit a home run, and posted a .342 OPS against Kilian.

Tony Vitello must have had his reasons for making this decision. Maybe he simply trusted Gage to deliver. After all, Gage has been one of, if not the most, reliable relievers this season. It’s also conceivable that Kilian’s pitch count and his number of home runs allowed this season factored into Vitello's decision to take him out.

Kilian was up to 25 pitches as Marte stepped into the batter’s box. Over his 20 appearances this season, he has thrown more than 20 pitches just four times — including last night — with his season high coming at 35 pitches in the Giants’ 5-3 win over the Pirates. His three home runs allowed are the most among the Giants’ relief corps, though all three came off right-handed bats.

It wasn’t the first time Matt Gage found himself in that situation. He was the one who came in and gave up the sacrifice fly in the 10th inning of the Giants’ second walk-off loss to the Phillies. The Giants have now lost four games in walk-off fashion this season, which is tied for the second most in the majors. There has been a common theme in those gut-punching losses, beyond the bullpen’s inability to finish the job: a blatant lack of run support.

Giants' late-inning losses also due to offensive struggles

In the morning walk-off loss in Philly, the pitching staff and defense held the Phillies to just one run through eight innings, but the offense collected just eight hits, went 2-for-9 with runners in scoring position, and put up just two runs.

In their afternoon loss, they held that same Phillies squad to just seven hits through eight innings, but went 3-for-13 with runners in scoring position and failed to cash in on their opportunities.

A couple of days later in Tampa Bay, they limited the Rays to just one run through nine innings, but the offense couldn’t top that total and went 1-for-11 with runners in scoring position.

Finally, on Tuesday at Chase Field, the Giants collected four hits, hit two home runs, and scored three runs in the second inning, only to go quiet the rest of the game. They went 4-for-27 (.148) over the next seven innings and failed to tack on any insurance runs.

It’s no secret that their offense has been inconsistent this season, and it can’t be chalked up to “a sluggish start” anymore. The Giants have the most games in baseball in which they have scored three or fewer runs. Their three-run performance against the D-backs marked the 30th time they failed to surpass a threshold they should be able to clear on a daily basis. Even worse, their runs-per-game average barely tops it, as the Giants average a league-low 3.47 runs per game.

On the flip side, the Giants have also held their opponents to three or fewer runs 24 times this season, the sixth most in the majors. But their widely-disappointing offense has prevented them from fully taking advantage of those strong defensive outings, as the Giants are just 16-8 (.667 winning percentage) in those games, the lowest winning percentage in the majors.

This roster was mostly put together to score runs. A roster boasting players like Willy Adames, Rafael Devers, Matt Chapman, and Heliot Ramos should be enough to produce an above-average offense. But that hasn’t been the case so far. Almost 50 games into the season, the Giants still rank dead last in runs scored (170) and 28th in OPS (.670). So, rather surprisingly, it’s their defense that has kept them from hitting rock bottom.

The defensive emergence of Luis Arraez is the biggest symbol of that surprising development. Arraez, who had never been a positive defender throughout his eight-season career, currently ranks third in Outs Above Average with eight.

Rafael Devers is also getting more comfortable at first base. He was as good with a bat in his hand as he was with a glove on Tuesday night. He smashed a ball over the fence in the second inning — the hardest-hit ball by a Giant this season — and doubled in the fifth, but also put on a defensive clinic in the sixth inning, recording all three outs. His most impressive play was the second out, when he dove with his arm stretched out on the first-base bag before Corbin Carroll — one of the fastest runners in the league — could get there.

The Giants as a team have been solid defensively. They have the fourth-highest defensive runs saved (18), rank 10th in fielding run value (4), and have turned in the most double-plays in the league (55).

Before that ninth-inning debacle, the defense was the only reason the Giants didn’t sink. A couple of perfectly executed double plays allowed both Keaton Winn and Kilian to escape bases-loaded jams and preserved their two-run lead.

"It was an unbelievable effort by those guys defensively but also some guys coming in and making pitches," said Vitello following the Giants' 5-3 loss. "The defense was incredible today. They're the reason why I pitched the way I did. So, all the props to them." said Landen Roupp after allowing just one run in six innings.

The front office didn’t invest such a huge sum of money and part of the franchise’s future to hover around .500 come September. They did so to make the playoffs and make a run. But if the Giants want to have a chance at climbing up the standings, their offense must start producing consistently, their bullpen must grow more comfortable in late-inning situations, and Tony Vitello needs to sharpen his decision-making. It sounds like a lot when put this way, but they’ve proven they’re capable. One thing they have not proven is that they can do it consistently, and their record reflects that.

Almost a third of the season has been played, and the Giants are nine games under .500 and nine games back of a wild-card spot, far from where the people upstairs envisioned this group being.

First order of business: win the games that you should win, then address the rest.

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