SF Giants are making more contact, but it is coming at a cost

The SF Giants are making more contact, as they have lowered their strikeout rate to 21.5 percent. However, their quality of contact metrics are lagging across the board, including barrel rate and hard-hit rate.

SF Giants are making more contact, but it is coming at a cost

The Giants have talked about bringing more contact to the lineup. That is one of the traits that has been associated with Buster Posey as the head of the front office. He has talked about wanting hitters to be the aggressors in the batter's box.

Of course, the Giants have brought in Luis Arráez, who is one of the best contact hitters in baseball. Jung Hoo Lee rarely swings and misses, and even Patrick Bailey has brought down his strikeout rate substantially. This is still a lineup that will strike out a fair bit.

At the very least, they have brought down their strikeout rate. They are 11th in baseball with a 21.5 percent strikeout rate. They are also third in baseball with a 79.2 percent contact rate. In 2025, they had a 22.7 percent strikeout rate and a 77.3 percent contact rate, both of which sat in the middle of the pack. These improvements are an encouraging sign for a team that wants to bring more contact to the lineup.

Front offices typically want to bring in more contact, but it is also a balancing act. Does it make sense to put the ball in play more if it is not resulting in much value?

This is where the Giants are at right now. They have one of the worst offenses in baseball. As a team, they are slashing .242/.286/.355 (83 wRC) with a .113 ISO. In terms of on-base percentage, wRC+, and ISO, they are near the bottom. To put it differently, they are not reaching base at an acceptable rate nor are they hitting for power, but they are hitting for more contact.

The desire for contact has led to some rough trends. For starters, they have a 5.8 percent barrel rate and a 37.5 percent hard-hit rate, both of which are in the bottom third in baseball. A lineup that features Rafael Devers, Matt Chapman, and Willy Adames should be making more meaningful contact.

Not surprisingly, these process stats have led to some less-than-encouraging expected numbers. This includes a .363 expecting slugging percentage and a .276 xwOBA, both of which are 29th in baseball. Only the Chicago White Sox have put up worse numbers.

I realize that this foray into analytics goes a bit too into the weeds and details. The last stat I will highlight is a .343 xwOBAcon, which measures a team's overall offensive value based on the quality of contact metrics while eliminating the noise of walks and strikeouts. This metric focuses specifically on contact. The Giants are 27th in this category. The White Sox are among the three teams that are performing worse.

On one hand, the Giants are making more contact than they have previously, which has been a constant complaint from the fanbase. On the other hand, they are not doing a whole lot when they do make contact, and the topline numbers are suffering. It is a difficult balancing act, and this is something teams wrestle with every year.

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