Projection model expects regression in 2025 from two breakout SF Giants rookies

The SF Giants received two very welcome surprises in 2024 in the form of rookies Tyler Fitzgerald and Heliot Ramos. However, a projection model expects both players to regress in 2025 which could bode poorly for the Giants.

Not many people had it on their 2024 Giants bingo card that by mid-season Tyler Fitzgerald would be the starting shortstop and Heliot Ramos would be the starting center fielder. Yet, that is the beauty of baseball: it always surprises us.

Projection model expects regression from SF Giants rookies Fitzgerald and Ramos

Fitzgerald was thought of more as a utility depth piece going into the season, but he got hot with the bat over the summer and earned the role of everyday shortstop. He finished the season slashing .280/.334/.497 with 15 home runs and 34 RBI.

The ZiPS projection model from FanGraphs believes Fitzgerald will not enjoy the same success in 2025. The model has him slashing .239/.300/.418 with 17 home runs and 66 RBI. Perhaps they feel the power surge he enjoyed during the summer was a bit of a fluke and that he will come back down to earth next year. In all, though, if the Giants land a solid shortstop and move Fitzgerald over to second base, that would not be awful production even if it would be disappointing compared to last year.

It is a similar story with Ramos. After the 2024 All-Star slashed .269/.322/.469 with 22 homers and 72 RBI, the model does not expect him to improve upon those numbers. It has him slashing .256/.316/.432 with 21 homers and 78 RBI. That is not awful, but again it is less impressive than his 2024 campaign.

Of course, these are just projection models. They are not fully predictive in any way, they just provide fodder to think about during the long offseason.

Yet, regression from Ramos and Fitzgerald is a valid concern going into next season. We saw their numbers decline as the year wore on which does raise the concern that opposing teams began to figure them both out and exploit their tendencies as they got more information on them.

The Giants' coaching staff is surely aware of this and will try to help the two young players continue to adjust as they get more experience under their belt.

2025 is a big year for both players. If they replicate or improve upon their 2024 campaigns, they could solidify themselves as key parts of the team for years to come. Conversely, if they take a step back then the front office may have to consider other options to replace them. The models are far from destiny, so let's hope that both Ramos and Fitzgerald are able to improve in 2025.