Why the path to the NL Wild Card might be tougher than originally expected for SF Giants

The NL is on the weaker side. Does that phrase sound familiar? It is one I used often leading up to the trade deadline but that dynamic has changed in an unfavorable way for the SF Giants.

Why the path to the NL Wild Card might be tougher than originally expected for SF Giants

For a moment in time on Tuesday night, it felt like the Giants would finally have a winning record. It is not something they have done often this season. In fact, they have been fighting an uphill battle just to get to a .500 record.

The Giants got out to an early 4-0 lead against the Washington Nationals on Tuesday. That lead did not hold for long and the Nationals got back in the win column, knocking the Giants back under .500 again.

At the end of June, you could make the case that the NL was on the weaker side. At that point, the Giants were comfortably in the Wild Card race with a 41-44 overall record. It was not an ideal position and they were still looking up in the standings.

However, the St. Louis Cardinals (43-40) and San Diego Padres (46-42) sat in second and third, respectively, in the Wild Card standings and they were not that far ahead of San Francisco. All it took was a winning streak and the Giants would be a lot closer in the standings.

That dynamic has shifted and so has the math. The Giants have a similar winning percentage (.496) now compared to where they were at the end of June. They are still within striking distance, but it is going to take a strong finish to even get back into the Wild Card race.

With a 57-58 record, the Giants sit 4.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves (60-52) for the third Wild Card spot. There are also three teams between the Giants and Atlanta.

If Atlanta's record holds constant for the remainder of the season, they would finish the season with 87 wins. If that is a floor for the Wild Card race, the Giants would have to go 30-17 in the final 47 games of the season. That is a .638 winning percentage in the final stretch for a team that sits one game below .500 and has a -14 run differential.

Of course, that 87-win threshold could be a flawed assumption on all things remaining constant. It is one data point, but even if we assume that they need to win 85 games to reach the playoffs, they still need to play better than they have.

The NL is no longer looking like the race last year where two 84-win teams reached the playoffs with one of them reaching the World Series in the Arizona Diamondbacks.

For what it is worth, the schedule is in the Giants' favor in August with two more games against the Nationals along with a series against the Detroit Tigers, Chicago White Sox, and Miami Marlins for three games apiece.

Once the calendar turns to September, the schedule becomes a lot tougher. The Giants need to bank some wins in August to have a chance in September.

Could they do it? Absolutely. The odds are not in their favor but there is a possibility. With the NL playing stronger than anticipated, the Giants need to start playing better today if they are going to have a chance later in the season.